EVs vs ICEs

[BlackMastodon]

But whatever happened to that plan to create a bullet train connecting Windsor to Ottawa, with the promise of commuting between Ottawa and Windsor in about 1.5 hours? I'd take advantage of that if it meant I can live far away with less expenses and not sacrifice my time in commute

I support this so that I can grab a beer at lunch with soliloquy, budda, and TedEH, and be back home by dinner.

 

[Randy]

The price of a battery pack in the current small-sized EV's cost more than $15k, so to build a full car at that price you'd be looking at maybe 100 miles of range, which theoretically should be enough for day-to-day use, but nobody wants to compromise for that. We've moved past those being viable options about a decade ago when sales of things like the Nissan Leaf or early compliance EV's saturated. Everyone wants the convenience of what an ICE car can offer but in an EV package and low price tag. The problem is that EV's are so damn expensive and STILL not profitable, so OEM's still make all their money from gigantor trucks and SUV's (which people don't mind spending $70k+ on, but I'll just sit here and sip my tea).

Lot of moving parts here so there's a few considerations.

As far as the big vehicle and price dynamic, as we are used to ICEs, more money buys you a bigger nicer status symbol for everyone to recognize on the road. That's a lot tougher in the EV world where you can be paying significantly more just for range capacity and reliability. In the i c e world you pay $40,000 more and get a vehicle that's twice as big, with bigger screens, and bigger sound system. You pay $40,000 more for an EV and get an equally ugly little gremlin as the base model so that you can get the extra 100 miles per charge, and maybe access to better charging locales.

That's a dynamic that's a bit to overcome.

The battery tech stuff is still a little dicey. People who are use to at least trying to be environmentally conscious invested in hybrid vehicles 10 and 15 years ago, and those are well known to have batteries that lose capacity somewhat fast. There is almost no market for used hybrids unless the batteries were refreshed or replaced, and the price tag there makes it untenable for either the new buyer or the seller.

That fed this impression of battery reliant cars as disposable. Those older generation EVS with sub 100 mile or barely 100 mile capacities also have not helped.

Current gen EV batteries boast a 20-year lifespan, with supposedly a 50 to even a hundred year capacity around the corner. But you're talking about bleeding edge technology on cars that are either a year or two old or still on the way. That capacity has not been tested and comes with a lot of caveats about charging and discharging, along with climate and storage.

It's worth noting the battery warranty many EV companies brag about at 10 years or 100,000 miles looks better on paper than it is in practice. First of all, realistically most cars will reach 100,000 miles well before 10 years. Second of all, by the time a car reaches 10 years you are likely on to the second or third owner and most warranties are not transferable. Or it's hard to track whether or not the warranty was voided across three owners.

The fine print on EV battery warranties state that it can be replaced if it dips below 70% during the warranty. At an advertised decrease in capacity of 2.5% per year (I'd like to see how that holds up in the Northeast and in Canada, or the South West US), it's almost impossible that the battery will ever be replaced or serviced under warranty unless it's defective. In that case, the person to get hit with the bill on getting the car back up to capacity will be the second or third owner. When they're looking at spending $15,000 to $20,000 to refresh a likely now obsolete car. Who would do that? The car once again becomes disposable.

 

[budda]

Thats when you do an LS swap

 

[CTID]

For a bit of context: the US had a record-setting year for vehicles in 2023. Highest number of cars sold, ever. Not talking about dollar amounts, but just the quantity of cars sold.

Removing the pickup trucks from the list, of the top 10 selling vehicles, 2 of them are EVs (both Teslas, 3 and Y), and there are only 3 sedans (one of them being the Tesla model 3). Everything else is a crossover. Aside from Tesla, Honda, and Toyota, there are no other sedans in the top 25-selling vehicles, and by the time you get down that far, you're below things like the Jeep Wrangler....but also once you get below the Tesla Model 3, there are no other EVs in the top 25 (not surprising).

Sedan fans can shake their fists at the clouds all they want just like fans of manual transmissions, but sedans just don't sell in the US. Camry and Carolla sales have been falling just about every year for the last decade. Ford got completely out of the car market aside from the Mustang. GM's and Stellantis has basically done the same (though there is a new Dodge Charger coming with a BEV option...but that's their only sedan). Even with electrics near the bottom of the EV price range, Hyundai sells twice as many Ionic 5 (crossover) than Ionic 6 (sedan).

Fair enough. Make it a crossover instead!

The price of a battery pack in the current small-sized EV's cost more than $15k, so to build a full car at that price you'd be looking at maybe 100 miles of range, which theoretically should be enough for day-to-day use, but nobody wants to compromise for that. We've moved past those being viable options about a decade ago when sales of things like the Nissan Leaf or early compliance EV's saturated. Everyone wants the convenience of what an ICE car can offer but in an EV package and low price tag. The problem is that EV's are so damn expensive and STILL not profitable, so OEM's still make all their money from gigantor trucks and SUV's (which people don't mind spending $70k+ on, but I'll just sit here and sip my tea).

I totally understand that the cost of making the vehicles is very high, my point is just that until they figure out a way to bring that down - and alongside it, the price of the vehicle itself - they're not going to sell in huge numbers. Even at the age of 30, most of my friends (and I have several making north of $100k/year) are driving 5-10 year old cars still, unless they're car enthusiasts that just pour all of their money into it, and tbf most of those people aren't the ones interesting in buying EVs.

 

[crushingpetal]

Was it ALMCO? or HERTZ? some car company signed a deal with Telsa where they will be renting out EVs.
hardly ANYONE wanted to rent out teslas from that company (for one reason or another). The compnay's stocks plummeted. Tesla on the other hand did really well for this deal and their stock boomed.

I also dont understand the growing distaste people have for him, yet he keeps doing 'better' financially.





long term thinking: What happens to batteries when they die? As in....do we recycle them? reuse them? or more shit to toss in landfills? Anyone know? I know electronic stores/ikea/etc have 'battery bins' where they ask you to bring your AA/AAA type batteries, and someone, somewhere deals with them as they see fit...but what about EV batteries?

Yup, I think it was HERTZ. Just checked, their stock is down 50% over 6 mos. That hurts (joke).

 

[soliloquy]

I totally understand that the cost of making the vehicles is very high, my point is just that until they figure out a way to bring that down - and alongside it, the price of the vehicle itself - they're not going to sell in huge numbers. Even at the age of 30, most of my friends (and I have several making north of $100k/year) are driving 5-10 year old cars still, unless they're car enthusiasts that just pour all of their money into it, and tbf most of those people aren't the ones interesting in buying EVs.

supposedly the average age of cars on north American roads is about 12 years old.
With that, for what its worth, EVERY new technology that comes out will be insanely expensive, and will become cheaper as the years/progression comes to be.

Tesla is a good example. Tesla is sort of doing the 'shake out' hostile market take over by slashing their prices more and more, forcing other EV's to not even get into the market as they cant compete with Tesla prices. Even within any 6 month period, the prices for Tesla is plummeting faster and faster. They can do that as they are now on their, what, second? Third generation of cars. With over a decade ahead of the other manufacturing.

Tesla is also positioned in a unique way as they started off as an EV company, where as others (IE Ford, Honda etc) were NOT in EV business for decades, and are now getting in.

If Musk stops being a dick, and welcomes competition in the EV market, ALL EV will come down faster, and the cars will become better. All quirks that one company finds will be corrected by another company. Essentially a giant collaborative project.

 

[CTID]

Tesla also had the foresight to make their cars look like cars, and not bubbly space ships. The Nissan Leaf wasn't/isn't amazing spec-wise but probably would've sold better if it wasn't so fucking ugly

 

[soliloquy]

Tesla also had the foresight to make their cars look like cars, and not bubbly space ships. The Nissan Leaf wasn't/isn't amazing spec-wise but probably would've sold better if it wasn't so fucking ugly

VS

I dont see the difference.

 

[Randy]

supposedly the average age of cars on north American roads is about 12 years old.
With that, for what its worth, EVERY new technology that comes out will be insanely expensive, and will become cheaper as the years/progression comes to be.

Tesla is a good example. Tesla is sort of doing the 'shake out' hostile market take over by slashing their prices more and more, forcing other EV's to not even get into the market as they cant compete with Tesla prices. Even within any 6 month period, the prices for Tesla is plummeting faster and faster. They can do that as they are now on their, what, second? Third generation of cars. With over a decade ahead of the other manufacturing.

Tesla is also positioned in a unique way as they started off as an EV company, where as others (IE Ford, Honda etc) were NOT in EV business for decades, and are now getting in.

If Musk stops being a dick, and welcomes competition in the EV market, ALL EV will come down faster, and the cars will become better. All quirks that one company finds will be corrected by another company. Essentially a giant collaborative project.

Agreed on all points and also another notch in my skepticism. They can mandate MPG and EV sales/saturation but they can't make the auto companies play nice with eachother or at least make Tesla sit at the same table as everyone else? All while still giving out massive tax breaks and credits to encourage people to buy their products?

 

[Randy]

VS

I dont see the difference.

This fuckin thing

 

[CTID]

VS

I dont see the difference.

y'know, credit where it's due: it's not nearly as bad as it used to be.

 

[soliloquy]

Agreed on all points and also another notch in my skepticism. They can mandate MPG and EV sales/saturation but they can't make the auto companies play nice with eachother or at least make Tesla sit at the same table as everyone else? All while still giving out massive tax breaks and credits to encourage people to buy their products?

I'm conflicted with this.
I want an EV. I dont like most of the EVs that are out currently, but I do love the way the Volvo EX30 looks.
the tax writes offs and credits that North American governments give to their citizens only applies to vehicles that are built in North America (at least in Canada. I dont know about USA). As such, those who want to get a EV and the tax cut have no choice but to get Tesla, or Mustang Mach E, or some other US made cars...

which is, in my eyes, a deterrent for those who WANT a EV but dont want to support Musk; all the while Ford appears to NOT be confident in their EVs and are pulling back.

so I want a Volvo; Canadian government wont see that as a credit worthy car; I have to pay EXTRA to get that Volvo.

But I'm also conflicted, as I DO want to support North American economy and not the Chinese economy (Volvo)

 

[CTID]

I'm conflicted with this.
I want an EV. I dont like most of the EVs that are out currently, but I do love the way the Volvo EX30 looks.
the tax writes offs and credits that North American governments give to their citizens only applies to vehicles that are built in North America (at least in Canada. I dont know about USA). As such, those who want to get a EV and the tax cut have no choice but to get Tesla, or Mustang Mach E, or some other US made cars...

which is, in my eyes, a deterrent for those who WANT a EV but dont want to support Musk; all the while Ford appears to NOT be confident in their EVs and are pulling back.

so I want a Volvo; Canadian government wont see that as a credit worthy car; I have to pay EXTRA to get that Volvo.

But I'm also conflicted, as I DO want to support North American economy and not the Chinese economy (Volvo)

I had no idea about that stipulation in the tax credit, but yeah looking it up it's the same here too. "Must undergo final assembly in NA":

 

[TedEH]

The Nissan Leaf wasn't/isn't amazing spec-wise but probably would've sold better if it wasn't so fucking ugly

It's not just ugly, it's also uncomfortable, has low visibility, doesn't handle very nicely, etc. It's just not a good car, or at least the one I test-drove wasn't. For the amount of money it costs to get into an EV, I'd want something that doesn't suck in so many ways at once.

I'm a bit late on this point - but I just came back from a trip, it's about 3 hours one way, and at some point I commented to a coworker that it's super convenient to have a L2 charger next to where I'm staying, so I can park overnight and by morning I've "filled the tank" again, costing me a grand total of $7 of "fuel" for the whole trip, and they, rightly, remind me that the trade-off was the "luxury price" up front. Someone commented a while back that it's the price holding a lot of people back, and I'd believe it. It's usually the first thing someone comments on when I mention I got an EV - something along the lines of "it would be nice, but I don't have 40-50k for a vehicle".

 

[BlackMastodon]

I had no idea about that stipulation in the tax credit, but yeah looking it up it's the same here too. "Must undergo final assembly in NA":

View attachment 142710

It's getting more strict than that: the new IRA rules mandate that the majority of the car has to be made in NA, including the batteries and their subcomponents, which drastically kicked up the fervour to start mining operations in NA.

Anyone else start sweating whenever they read about Doug Ford's planned "Ring of Fire"? Couldn't have picked a less ominous name?