Lorcan Ward
7slinger
It is common practice to buy over the border and then bring it home!
Covid 19/Coronavirus
- Thread starter Ralyks
- Start date
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It is common practice to buy over the border and then bring it home!
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wankerness
Well-Known Member
I never said a majority of patients needed ventilators, I said a majority of those that get a severe case and get hospitalized do. That first thing you posted seems to be giving the even more alarming stat that 20% of people who get this disease at all (not just "serious cases") require hospitalization! From a later one, it "only" suggests ~2.3% of them need mechanical ventilation. Considering we're expecting 30%-60% of the population to get this disease eventually, even a better-case scenario of .5% of 300 million people requiring one to two weeks of ventilation would be disastrous if we don't immediately start quarantining to offload this over the course of months. Italy doesn't have millions of sick people, but just the hundreds of severe cases are enough to have completely overwhelmed the hospital system and cause these decisions. As I said, if you're over 65, you're basically just given a death sentence at some hospitals cause they have to choose who gets the couple of ventilators based on age ("probable years left"), comorbidity risks, etc.
This particular info I've read is mainly coming from firsthand reports from doctors working in Northern Italy. I see no reason why they would lie about something as serious as that, it's not like it gains them anything.
KnightBrolaire
friendly neighborhood gearwhore
Fair enough about the firsthand reports. I haven't seen any other reliable information about mechanical ventilation rates besides the study I posted previously and some stats on CDC.
The 20% stat is 20% of already critical cases, not 20% of all infected. I guess I should have clarified. The overwhelming majority of patients shouldn't need to be ventilated.
As I mentioned in previous posts, MASCAL scenarios where the hospital is overwhelmed with patients is my biggest concern right now. If it happened to Italy then it'll likely happen here if COVID really explodes here in the states. I don't think the patient overload will be as critical at say, Mayo (which has hundreds of ICU beds) versus a rural Level IV County hospital. That's where I'm expecting the system strain, especially since a lot of smaller hospitals have very limited resources/training comparatively.
I'm surprised how many people act like triaging patients is a new thing. This has literally been SOP in the medical field for over a century. Hospitals have finite resources and during a MASCAL can only afford to use resources on patients most likely to survive. It's just figuring out with cold hard logic which patients need attention first. That priority almost always goes to people with airway obstruction/ respiratory failure (these are the people that truly need intubation/ full ventilation) , extreme bleeding/trauma (except for exposed brain matter) or serious heart issues. Past those issues, then yes, they'll probably have to account for remaining quality of life, comorbidities, and other factors to prioritize.
wankerness
Well-Known Member
I don't think any of us are acting like it's a new thing, we're acting like it's looking that it will be necessary on a level that none of us have ever had to live through before. I saw several descriptions of this as the biggest event in these countries since WWII when it comes to disruptions, resources running thin, loss of life, etc. That is a big deal and people are right to be concerned.
I think "PANIC" is definitely not something we want, but on the other hand it's infinitely more helpful for people to be terrified and holed up inside than it is for a bunch of people walking around spreading it cause they personally aren't that sick. Or having a frickin 3500 person Smurf meetup near a hotzone.
Drew
Forum MVP
It's a fine line, because the last thing you want is tens of thousands of people with runny noses lined up outside major hospitals demanding to be tested all over the country (note: runny noses are not currently a symptom of COVID-19) and misdirecting resources/creating potential larger pockets for contagion, but on the other hand, this is a legitimate public health crisis, and when you have the President giving a prime time address saying "this isn't a big deal at all if you're under 65" and "this will all blow over on its own in April," well, that's an attitude that will get a lot more people killed than would be otherwise.
Local schools reporting they'll be closed for the next two weeks, as I'm typing this.
Shit is getting real in Belgium. Little news on the actual virus or patients but all events and gatherings have been cancelled, people that can work from home are staying at home, people hoarding like a zombie apocalypse. Potatoes, onions, toilet paper, all sorts of canned food is literally sold out, supermarkets are overrun with people right now..
Oh and btw..Docters saying we should close schools right now!
- govts response: "nah we're good!"
Oh and btw..Docters saying we should close schools right now!
- govts response: "nah we're good!"
Kaura
Je suis ketchup
Shit is getting real in Belgium. Little news on the actual virus or patients but all events and gatherings have been cancelled, people that can work from home are staying at home, people hoarding like a zombie apocalypse. Potatoes, onions, toilet paper, all sorts of canned food is literally sold out, supermarkets are overrun with people right now..
Oh and btw..Docters saying we should close schools right now!
- govts response: "nah we're good!"
Same in Finland. The government is having an emergency meeting about shutting down the whole country as we speak. People have also started hoarding all the food and supplies. I'm not too worried yet because I work for a major logistics company that handles food products so as long as my company doesn't get shut down, there's going to be food in stores.
wankerness
Well-Known Member
These two week closures in the us with expectation of reopening are silly since it’s in two weeks that things will probably just start getting bad. I don’t anticipate any improvement for months. China’s been under severe lockdown for weeks and the damn thing would probably just explode again as soon as they lifted it.
My county just had its first confirmed case. Joy.
wankerness
Well-Known Member
We had two confirmed already in my podunk county, but there are so many reports across the country of people being refused tests despite almost definitely having it that you know there's plenty more. I saw an estimate a little while ago that there are over a thousand cases in Ohio alone. But, they aren't tested, so the numbers Trump can report are still close to 0.
Even if the flight is not banned, go abroad for holiday at this very moment is not a wise move
KnightBrolaire
friendly neighborhood gearwhore
Source?
John Hopkins is saying around 12500 infected, 830 dead.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
ThePIGI King
Jiu Jitsu Enthusiast
Everybody I know does not care. I hardly think it'll be that bad. It seems like a ton of people just going full freakout mode.
Also, why did it take a "pandemic" to make people wash their hands? Isn't that just commonplace?
Also, why did it take a "pandemic" to make people wash their hands? Isn't that just commonplace?
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19...onale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv
The Johns Hopkins site is a few hours behind.
Government official website: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nu...=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4219
Probably in these 2 weeks we'll reach peak of the spreading, then we expect a slow decline in positive cases.
You'd think so, wouldn't you...
TedEH
Cromulent
Ontario just decided to close all public schools for the two weeks after March break. The office I'm at is now prepping for remote work should that become the official recommendation.
High Plains Drifter
... drifting...
Maybe not appropriate to rant here... apologies but FUCK the US govt, politics, and those that for some insane reason, seem to need to see people dying around them to actually take logical steps in the way that they conduct themselves... socially, hygienically, morally. We've been BEGGING for something like this to happen.
spudmunkey
Well-Known Member
My own office (about 40 people) and our HQ (about 180) are officially on "don't come into the office unless you need to" mode. All social/networking events are "postponned" including our own "grand opening" for our new office/showroom.
We're also going to close off all but 3 meeting rooms, so that janitorial doesn't have to sanitize the whole place all the time.
We're also going to close off all but 3 meeting rooms, so that janitorial doesn't have to sanitize the whole place all the time.
