Covid 19/Coronavirus

[Thorsday]

I got together with fellow scientists at a consortium and we all thought it would be a real hoot if we made everyone stay inside and not have any fun for two years. I personally get charged an arm and a leg now for shipping amps to the US and back, but that's just a sacrifice I make for the cause.

The conspiracy theorists die out real fast if you have to get specific on who and why.

Of course you're a libby dibby non-American. That's fine. Enjoy your Union, citizen.

 

[narad]

Of course you're a libby dibby non-American. That's fine. Enjoy your Union, citizen.

I'm American. Don't let my correct usage of the word "sychophants" fool you.

 

[StevenC]

People who are elderly, have underlying conditions (cell damage), are immunocompromised, etc. die from the flu every year. What's new?

Fuck me dead, I'm so sick of Sychophants... The Mass Psychosis is real.

"People die and we shouldn't try to stop it" says person giving health advice

 

[diagrammatiks]

I'm American. Don't let my correct usage of the word "sychophants" fool you.

these type of people also have a very hard time understanding americans living abroad for some reason.

 

[narad]

these type of people also have a very hard time understanding americans living abroad for some reason.

It's weird that the idea of a Japanese person speaking fluent english and spending their time arguing about American politics on a guitar forum was more plausible than that there was just an American existing outside of America.

But then again, it's the same brain that's scoring a global conspiracy of control as more plausible than there being a dangerous virus and everyone doing obvious strategies to mitigate its spread. Or scoring meat as a more potent defense against a virus than a vaccine.

 

[bostjan]

It's frustrating that so many folks are denying this virus exists. My family back in Michigan dealt directly with the virus for about two months; it cost me an uncle and we are still dealing with longer-term health problems after "recovery" three months hence. And @Thorsday and others still want to say it's all a conspiracy; just don't waste your time trying to convince me.

In other news, it looks like boosters research is on hold now, simply because the WHO is saying that there is no point giving people boosters when so many are unvaccinated. I agree with the spirit of that sentiment, but, in execution, I fear that many of the places where people are unvaccinated are dealing with corrupted governments and will not receive their vaccines regardless of whether biotech is researching boosters or not. Meanwhile, in Israel, for example, millions of people who have their vaccines wearing off may become high risk.

 

[spudmunkey]

SF General is offering free "supplemental" (note: not "booster") mRNA shots for anyone who's received the J&J vacine.

 

[Drew]

I'm American. Don't let my correct usage of the word "sychophants" fool you.

You'll also note, naturally, that he completely ignored the content of your post, and instead fell back on an ad hominem.

Someone's gotta get these trolls a new fucking playbook, because this is getting kinda dull.

 

[Drew]

In other news, it looks like boosters research is on hold now, simply because the WHO is saying that there is no point giving people boosters when so many are unvaccinated. I agree with the spirit of that sentiment, but, in execution, I fear that many of the places where people are unvaccinated are dealing with corrupted governments and will not receive their vaccines regardless of whether biotech is researching boosters or not. Meanwhile, in Israel, for example, millions of people who have their vaccines wearing off may become high risk.

It's a total Sophie's choice, because while their point that we need to continue to try to help under-vaccinated populations is pretty clearly true, depending on the rate at which protection fades, we also run the risk of losing the progress we HAVE made in more well-vaccinated areas, and arguably wasting all those hundreds of millions of doses for it.

Of course, you could just as easily argue that the woefully undervaccinated South is already doing that for us. We're seeing new case growth rates in the 150-200% rate in Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina, which is fucking insane.

 

[bostjan]

It's a total Sophie's choice, because while their point that we need to continue to try to help under-vaccinated populations is pretty clearly true, depending on the rate at which protection fades, we also run the risk of losing the progress we HAVE made in more well-vaccinated areas, and arguably wasting all those hundreds of millions of doses for it.

Of course, you could just as easily argue that the woefully undervaccinated South is already doing that for us. We're seeing new case growth rates in the 150-200% rate in Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, and South Carolina, which is fucking insane.

Lots of difficult choices the past year and a half...

I'm all for struggling to get the vaccines to everybody who wants them. I think that the conundrum is that the solution to that problem isn't mutually exclusive with the development and distribution of boosters.

They need to be able to quickly get vaccine manufacturing going in facilities nearer to the parts of the world that have vaccine shortages. Simply cranking out more vaccine at the places that are already cranking out vaccine isn't going to be as effective, due to the fact that logistics are a nightmare right now.

Also, if the first wave of vaccinated people are the ones responsible for making the vaccines, and those people's vaccines are wearing off, we have the same problem as when the cabin pressure in the airplane drops. You put your own mask on first, not out of selfishness, but because you can't help put on other people's masks if you've already asphyxiated.

If the vaccine manufacturers decide they need to pull back on booster development, then I'd be willing to accept that, but I'm not sure the WHO is prepared to solve the problems themselves that need to be solved in order for their directive to become effective. Maybe I'm wrong, though.

 

[Drew]

Lots of difficult choices the past year and a half...

I'm all for struggling to get the vaccines to everybody who wants them. I think that the conundrum is that the solution to that problem isn't mutually exclusive with the development and distribution of boosters.

They need to be able to quickly get vaccine manufacturing going in facilities nearer to the parts of the world that have vaccine shortages. Simply cranking out more vaccine at the places that are already cranking out vaccine isn't going to be as effective, due to the fact that logistics are a nightmare right now.

Also, if the first wave of vaccinated people are the ones responsible for making the vaccines, and those people's vaccines are wearing off, we have the same problem as when the cabin pressure in the airplane drops. You put your own mask on first, not out of selfishness, but because you can't help put on other people's masks if you've already asphyxiated.

If the vaccine manufacturers decide they need to pull back on booster development, then I'd be willing to accept that, but I'm not sure the WHO is prepared to solve the problems themselves that need to be solved in order for their directive to become effective. Maybe I'm wrong, though.

All excellent points. FWIW my gut reaction is I disagree with the WHO here, but I also have to own my own biases, and as a well-off American living in a state with well-higher-than-average vaccination rates, I'm likely to prioritize my own interests and those of people in situations similar to mine over those in poorer countries with extremely low vaccination rates. If I was living in or traveling through sub-Saharan Africa, how different would my response be? That I can't say.

The only "costless" solution is to find ways to increase production of both vaccines AND boosters, but easier said than done. Biden at least utilized some of the emergency wartime powers he has as President to speed this (the Merck/Pfizer agreement is a great example of shit Trump SHOULD have been doing but wasn't), but need still vastly outstrips supply.

 

[mbardu]

It's frustrating that so many folks are denying this virus exists. My family back in Michigan dealt directly with the virus for about two months; it cost me an uncle and we are still dealing with longer-term health problems after "recovery" three months hence. And @Thorsday and others still want to say it's all a conspiracy; just don't waste your time trying to convince me.

In other news, it looks like boosters research is on hold now, simply because the WHO is saying that there is no point giving people boosters when so many are unvaccinated. I agree with the spirit of that sentiment, but, in execution, I fear that many of the places where people are unvaccinated are dealing with corrupted governments and will not receive their vaccines regardless of whether biotech is researching boosters or not. Meanwhile, in Israel, for example, millions of people who have their vaccines wearing off may become high risk.

I have no idea how you can deny the virus, or even say it's just a flu when it's clearly at least an order of magnitude worse.

As for boosters, what is the end game? Continue to selectively and partially vaccinate the same populations against the variants we knew 6 months ago in order to "reopen the economy" there and ultimately drop other precautions? What if it turns out reopening even with say a 60/70% vaccine coverage may actually be the ideal breeding ground for more virulent or vaccine-resistant variants, that can then circulate in and out of a region/country if things are open. And then as usual the most vulnerable populations (in terms of individuals such as the immunocompromised or in terms of countries like Peru or India) are hit the worst.
This line of thinking was judged 100% out there a few months ago (and people talking about it were basically laughed at- as usual as antivax)...but new metrics on delta, and now rise of lambda are making it look like not so dumb after all.
What is the good solution then? Sounds like you would need to vaccinate a very high percentage of the population (and that would mean global population), at a quicker pace that what we've done so far - and even then still have serious and coordinated confinement measures as well together with/after the vaccination. But then, if this sounds like easy peasy from a logistics standpoint, I don't know why the "maybe we try an actual confinement worldwide for a bit anyway" sounds so silly. Or maybe we'll get there.

 

[CovertSovietBear]

As for boosters, what is the end game? Continue to selectively and partially vaccinate the same populations against the variants we knew 6 months ago in order to "reopen the economy" there and ultimately drop other precautions? What if it turns out reopening even with say a 60/70% vaccine coverage may actually be the ideal breeding ground for more virulent or vaccine-resistant variants, that can then circulate in and out of a region/country if things are open. And then as usual the most vulnerable populations (in terms of individuals such as the immunocompromised or in terms of countries like Peru or India) are hit the worst.

Good read, published a few days ago too! Boosters may be better suited for scenarios where we have higher rates of vaccinations and certainly not at our current percentages. With varying/spotty rates throughout the US and the rest of the world it's hard to say how highly unvaccinated areas and vaccinated areas will entwine and affect overall progressive mutation of the different strains.

 

[bostjan]

The reality of the situation might be too depressing to really discuss without getting into a heated discussion.

Frankly, vaccinations at a mass global scale in places like the Congo or Afghanistan or North Korea are probably pretty much impossible. Global lockdowns are pretty much impossible. "Herd immunity" is pretty much impossible, even combining vaccines with natural immunity, unless there is something of a wild card we don't yet understand.

If the vaccine lasts (statistically) 6 months, or even 12 months, and natural immunity lasts 2 months or even 6 months, then this is just going to keep circulating amongst the population. Even if the direct mortality is 3-4%, but long term effects mean significantly elevated incidences of stroke and serious lung disease, this is just going to mean that life expectancy and quality of life, on average, are going to go down. I mean, humanity dealt with similar or worse with widespread tuberculosis and the numerous plagues. It's not the end of the world, but it could be a profound shift in our culture.

What does that mean about people like @Thorsday, our the crazy uncle who believes it's all a democratic hoax?

 

[Drew]

If the vaccine lasts (statistically) 6 months, or even 12 months, and natural immunity lasts 2 months or even 6 months, then this is just going to keep circulating amongst the population. Even if the direct mortality is 3-4%, but long term effects mean significantly elevated incidences of stroke and serious lung disease, this is just going to mean that life expectancy and quality of life, on average, are going to go down. I mean, humanity dealt with similar or worse with widespread tuberculosis and the numerous plagues. It's not the end of the world, but it could be a profound shift in our culture.

I don't quite share your doom and gloom prognosis... but, if you're right, eh, I'd make a pretty happy natural hermit anyway, and I wouldn't mind a world where our cities just became a lot less crowded. I can do my job well enough from home, and riding a road bike up mountains for fun is a pretty great socially distant hobby. This outcome wouldn't, personally speaking, be the worst, for me personally.

What does that mean about people like @Thorsday, our the crazy uncle who believes it's all a democratic hoax?

Is that even what he believes? I haven't really been able to ascribe a single unifying motive to him aside from "real men eat meat and don't worry about viruses, because that's what our cavemen ancestors with 20-30yr lifespans did!" and "pwn everyone who isn't me!" To be fair though I've been mostly tuning him out.

 

[BigViolin]

It's why we can't have nice things.

 

[TedEH]

What does that mean about people like @Thorsday, our the crazy uncle who believes it's all a democratic hoax?

I don't think it says much at all. There's some large gaps between nihilism, cynicism, conspiracies, trolling, and just plain not giving a shit.

It doesn't help anyone's case that any futility in trying to mitigate a pandemic is pretty directly caused by the people yammering about it being futile in the first place.
Or in other words, "we can't do anything about it" is rightly met with "not with that attitude".

Edit:
Or in other other words, we'd all be out of this already if everyone just followed mbardu's plan from the beginning.

 

[Adieu]

The reality of the situation might be too depressing to really discuss without getting into a heated discussion.

Frankly, vaccinations at a mass global scale in places like the Congo or Afghanistan or North Korea are probably pretty much impossible. Global lockdowns are pretty much impossible. "Herd immunity" is pretty much impossible, even combining vaccines with natural immunity, unless there is something of a wild card we don't yet understand.

If the vaccine lasts (statistically) 6 months, or even 12 months, and natural immunity lasts 2 months or even 6 months, then this is just going to keep circulating amongst the population. Even if the direct mortality is 3-4%, but long term effects mean significantly elevated incidences of stroke and serious lung disease, this is just going to mean that life expectancy and quality of life, on average, are going to go down. I mean, humanity dealt with similar or worse with widespread tuberculosis and the numerous plagues. It's not the end of the world, but it could be a profound shift in our culture.

What does that mean about people like @Thorsday, our the crazy uncle who believes it's all a democratic hoax?

Vaccination in North Korea isn't impossible

It's probably in the top 5 of easiest-to-vax countries around. Totalitarian states have zero difficulties getting the population to obey simple and straightforward directives.

They're pretty much the Nike logo if it came with a big fat cop for extra motivation

 

[bostjan]

I don't quite share your doom and gloom prognosis... but, if you're right, eh, I'd make a pretty happy natural hermit anyway, and I wouldn't mind a world where our cities just became a lot less crowded. I can do my job well enough from home, and riding a road bike up mountains for fun is a pretty great socially distant hobby. This outcome wouldn't, personally speaking, be the worst, for me personally.

Not so bad for me, either, really. Certainly not ideal, but, in my line of work, I've been super in-demand and super busy since the beginning of the pandemic. I miss visiting my family from out of state and I definitely miss live music, but other than that...

I think there's generally no harm in being optimistic, but, there does come a point, when things are going wrong, that you have to adjust your strategy. Presently, I think, our strategy is how to beat covid. I've been saying since March of 2020 that we need some sort of magic bullet treatment in order to make it essentially go away. At that time, everyone else was saying vaccine... Now there is a vaccine and there is still no effective treatment. @mbardu points out that boosters just mean an endless rush to keep it at bay, at least with our current situation, and that's a good point. For sure a vaccine is a power prevention tool, and I'm not about to shrug it off, but we also need to be realistic about its limitations. Either we need to somehow come up with that treatment (which, at this point, since there has never been an effective treatment for anything like it, it's like "guess which number I'm thinking" when the number could be not just an integer, but any number), or we need to start adjusting to what life will be like under the worsened scanario.

Is that even what he believes? I haven't really been able to ascribe a single unifying motive to him aside from "real men eat meat and don't worry about viruses, because that's what our cavemen ancestors with 20-30yr lifespans did!" and "pwn everyone who isn't me!" To be fair though I've been mostly tuning him out.

Well, there's a lot of internal inconsistency in general among conspiracy theorists when the virus is both a hoax and a Chinese superweapon.

 

[bostjan]

Vaccination in North Korea isn't impossible

It's probably in the top 5 of easiest-to-vax countries around. Totalitarian states have zero difficulties getting the population to obey simple and straightforward directives.

They're pretty much the Nike logo if it came with a big fat cop for extra motivation

Contingent upon the regime in power giving them the vaccine. Does the Kim regime want to vaccinate people? If so, is there a way for pharmaceutical companies to hand off the vaccines? Does there exist an infrastructure to get those vaccines transported from the drop-off point to where they are administered without having them spoil? If not, and if they do spoil, would anyone even mention it?