EVs vs ICEs

[Randy]

As per CBC, that isn't the case. People are interested in supporting EV for climate change, or saving cost on gas...but sadly our infrastructure to support EVs peaked in 2022 and has been declining. Charging stations having issues; long line ups; EV parking spots would penalize you for not charging your car; said chargers wont work; chargers running on gas or what not...Some even arguing that the range anxiety gets worse in winter to less than half of what is suggested, and if these grid issues continue, the EVs are not heading in the right direction.

Mind you, I do NOT have an EV (yet), so i could very well be talking out of my ass, and basing my info on stuff i'm finding on CBC and other soruces. The video above, however, is based in New York where they have other issues impacting them with EVs.

I do hear more and more EV owners complaining about charging stations with half the chargers not working, and the rest either taken or running slow and having to pick places with stuff to do to kill time. The concept of being surprised by things not working when you get there, fear of being stranded or stuck sitting around do not dovetail with 2024 American culture.

I'm reminded of the old saying "you don't get a second chance at a first impression".

The initial argument that got me in trouble here was saying that I didn't think EVs were entirely "there" yet or that it was a bridge technology, and I think that's still mostly accurate. I appreciate how far we've come from the "Who Killed the Electric Car" era and them being slow Urkel cars with no significant capacity, but electric cars v2.0 still had/have significant wrinkles. And when the general public had their attention pointed there (especially with incentives or MANDATES), it becomes even harder to alleviate the skepticism a second or third time.

The Biden green infrastructure bill was meant to grease the wheels (no pun intended) and beat back some of the electric anxiety, and it's arguably made it worse. People were told the weight of the US federal government was getting behind making EVs work, and you have a colossal tax bill for broken or non-existent charge stations, discounts on EVs that are either not in stock or credits that have been exhausted already.

People who are already inclined to try that technology will put up with those kind of problems. But that's a lot to ask of people who are either disinterested or skeptical. Certainty doesn't read like technology that's ready for mandated use.

 

[soliloquy]

I do hear more and more EV owners complaining about charging stations with half the chargers not working, and the rest either taken or running slow and having to pick places with stuff to do to kill time. The concept of being surprised by things not working when you get there, fear of being stranded or stuck sitting around do not dovetail with 2024 American culture.

I'm reminded of the old saying "you don't get a second chance at a first impression".

The initial argument that got me in trouble here was saying that I didn't think EVs were entirely "there" yet or that it was a bridge technology, and I think that's still mostly accurate. I appreciate how far we've come from the "Who Killed the Electric Car" era and them being slow Urkel cars with no significant capacity, but electric cars v2.0 still had/have significant wrinkles. And when the general public had their attention pointed there (especially with incentives or MANDATES), it becomes even harder to alleviate the skepticism a second or third time.

The Biden green infrastructure bill was meant to grease the wheels (no pun intended) and beat back some of the electric anxiety, and it's arguably made it worse. People were told the weight of the US federal government was getting behind making EVs work, and you have a colossal tax bill for broken or non-existent charge stations, discounts on EVs that are either not in stock or credits that have been exhausted already.

People who are already inclined to try that technology will put up with those kind of problems. But that's a lot to ask of people who are either disinterested or skeptical. Certainty doesn't read like technology that's ready for mandated use.

similarly, Ontario government (or was it Federal? I dont know my facts here 100%, so i could be wrong), just signed a deal with Honda as North America's biggest and most optimistic future development with EV. This is coming at a time when Ford and VW are pulling back from EV due to declining sales.

I want to be more optimistic with EV and its future, as I really do want to buy into this if the technology is there...however, my fear is that similar to US's plans to make majority of cars EV by a certain date, Canada also plans something similar. We already have the 'freedom milage' folks that would refuse to listen to anything the government says (not getting into that argument here), thus I wonder how this would pan out in the future where governments are pushing something onto its people, and its people are rebelling for one reason or another.



With that said...HOW THE FLYING HELL is Norway dealing with this? Why are they so much more advanced to us? What are we (North Americans) doing wrong here where our future for EV seems to be dwindling, while Norway is accepting it and making strides with it?

as a consumer, the price for EV is crashing, thus that seems attractive to me. Yet if all other things are malfunctioning, I have no real choice but to keep buying climate destroying tech.

Sure, Hydrogen cars exist, but they are VERY isolated to certain geographic locations. Solar? Wind? Water? Nuclear? or maybe just a better overhaul of EV to make them feasible?

 

[spawnofthesith]

I think trying to look at the technology as it is now and expecting it to stay the same/not to advance in the next 11 years is pretty problematic and incorrect thinking. Look at the advancements in tech and infrastructure in the last few years much less compared to a decade ago. things are evolving rapidly and it can really only go up from here.


I think the mandates are absolutely essential, because without them we'd have slimmer chances of advancement. Even with impending mandates there's still so much of a "see it sucks! might as well not try to make it better or try at all!!" nonsense thinking. Mandates are helpful in keeping that moving along.

People seem to forget that it isn't like ICE are going to suddenly be illegal in 2035. There will still be -mostly- ICE vehicles on the road for a long time, even if it's illegal to manufacture new ones. and there will be decades and decades worth of used cars not using new technology available still for anyone who still doesn't want to adopt with however things are looking 11 years from now

 

[Randy]

I think the mandates are absolutely essential, because without them we'd have slimmer chances of advancement. Even with impending mandates there's still so much of a "see it sucks! might as well not try to make it better or try at all!!" nonsense thinking. Mandates are helpful in keeping that moving along.

Hard disagree. Mandates are gun to your head "you're doing this whether it's the best outcome or not". That'll force "progress" but it's it a guarantee it makes things better as a whole from where you started? No.

Its actually kind of naive to look at it from this angle considering a long history of the government implementing policy that is either ineffective or makes things worse.

The "see it sucks" angle can cut one of two ways. Either it's stubborn people/industry that want to revert back to ICEs or it's to say the technology we're investing in isn't working, let's look elsewhere. I'd be more interested in broader efficiency, carbon reduction or fossil fuel elimination mandates than I am to EV mandates.

I'll agree with something TedEH had said before, the positive to moving toward majority EV ownership is that you can play around a lot with what you use to generate the electricity you run them on. That's a significant positive. I'm just not sure transportation technology 11 years from now is best served by committing to the transportation model of today.

 

[spawnofthesith]

Hard disagree. Mandates are gun to your head "you're doing this whether it's the best outcome or not". That'll force "progress" but it's it a guarantee it makes things better as a whole from where you started? No.

Its actually kind of naive to look at it from this angle considering a long history of the government implementing policy that is either ineffective or makes things worse.

The "see it sucks" angle can cut one of two ways. Either it's stubborn people/industry that want to revert back to ICEs or it's to say the technology we're investing in isn't working, let's look elsewhere. I'd be more interested in broader efficiency, carbon reduction or fossil fuel elimination mandates than I am to EV mandates.

I'll agree with something TedEH had said before, the positive to moving toward majority EV ownership is that you can play around a lot with what you use to generate the electricity you run them on. That's a significant positive. I'm just not sure transportation technology 11 years from now is best served by committing to the transportation model of today.

Fair enough in regards to mandates not necessarily being the way

I'm all for other alternatives to EVs as well, but I think realistically this is our best bet at the moment since it's already on it's way to being decently established, and only improving from here

 

[Randy]

Fair enough in regards to mandates not necessarily being the way

I'm all for other alternatives to EVs as well, but I think realistically this is our best bet at the moment since it's already on it's way to being decently established, and only improving from here

I think within the context of 1.5 passenger transport, commute to work or shopping the way we've done it for the last 100 years, yeah I think maximum EV saturation is the best quick fix available. I just think in terms of some end goal of slowing, stopping and reversing climate change it feels like thinking/working too small.

Considering we're talking a climate crisis which was on the brink and we've now surpassed the tipping point, i think 11 years to get to everyone driving steel/aluminum/plastic EVs with rubber tires on asphalt roads and powered by ultra-toxic battery components and refilled by [insert your non renewable energy source of choice] is selling the solution way way short.

And that's not to say lack of of a perfect solution means don't do anything at all. Its to say how much money and political capital do we want to spend specifically pointing at that?

By many accounts the auto industry has been losing money on EV R&D, and theyre generally not doing very well on profiting on a per-vehicle basis, which has led to a number of subsidies to the makers and to the public to make it affordable/semi viable. Likewise, the Biden investment in yet-to-be-realized charging stations or ones that are just as buggy as the ones they replaced, which implies additional rounds of funding necessary "to do it right this time".

Thats a lot of investment in beta testing a thing thats tangential to the actual goal.

If I was moving toward massive investment or mandates of any kind, I'd have either preferred to see more from the technology as a starting point or see it spent on something else more directly targeted at the goals. I'm mega disappointed my the MPG targets that were reversed or eliminated, and we're seeing more big boxy SUVs with one person driving it than ever before. I can't fathom how that dynamic is tackled in tandem with a goal of 100% EV saturation.

 

[CTID]

tbh I think that one of the biggest issues facing mass adoption of EVs right now is the fuckin economy. your average EV costs what, $35-45k before options? most people don't have the money for that shit. in my (100% completely anecdotal) experience with replacing windshields and the like, most people are driving nissan versas, used civics, camrys, corollas, old pickup trucks, ie cars that they're buying for $7-12k. obviously there's also a very large section of people who drive pricier cars, i'm not denying that. just that the cross section of those people AND people who are interested in EVs AND can find one that meets their wants and needs.

maybe i'm completely full of shit (i am) but imo if you want to see EVs adopted on a large scale, make one that can get the average person to and from work and events daily for $15k that doesn't look like anything other than a normal ass sedan.

 

[spudmunkey]

From the very beginning of California's EV mandate and now Federal guidelines, I think it'd be disingenuous to believe the metrics and milestones were set in stone. There'd have been no way that we'd make it all the way to 2035 with everyone just hoping for the best, and then throwing up their hands at the end if/when we'd fail, looking around going, "Well now what?"

It is an aggressive target to shoot for knowing that no matter what date would be set, it'd likely get kicked down the road even further, and the entire time, there'd be policy makers and industry experts seeing how things are proceeding, to see if any of the metrics need to be shifted...not to mention the inevitable delays from industry lawsuits.

And they already have. Dates and percentages have already been pushed back from the original targets.

I fall along the side of "twiddling our thumbs, waiting for perfection" isn't really an option, and there needed to be a kick-in-the-pants of a long-term goal. I just can't wrap my head around the belief that everyone involved in crafting this legislation was running on the assumption that every milestone and benchmark would be inflexible gospel.

tbh I think that one of the biggest issues facing mass adoption of EVs right now is the fuckin economy. your average EV costs what, $35-45k before options? most people don't have the money for that shit. in my (100% completely anecdotal) experience with replacing windshields and the like, most people are driving nissan versas, used civics, camrys, corollas, old pickup trucks, ie cars that they're buying for $7-12k. obviously there's also a very large section of people who drive pricier cars, i'm not denying that. just that the cross section of those people AND people who are interested in EVs AND can find one that meets their wants and needs.

maybe i'm completely full of shit (i am) but imo if you want to see EVs adopted on a large scale, make one that can get the average person to and from work and events daily for $15k that doesn't look like anything other than a normal ass sedan.

For a bit of context: the US had a record-setting year for vehicles in 2023. Highest number of cars sold, ever. Not talking about dollar amounts, but just the quantity of cars sold.

Removing the pickup trucks from the list, of the top 10 selling vehicles, 2 of them are EVs (both Teslas, 3 and Y), and there are only 3 sedans (one of them being the Tesla model 3). Everything else is a crossover. Aside from Tesla, Honda, and Toyota, there are no other sedans in the top 25-selling vehicles, and by the time you get down that far, you're below things like the Jeep Wrangler....but also once you get below the Tesla Model 3, there are no other EVs in the top 25 (not surprising).

Sedan fans can shake their fists at the clouds all they want just like fans of manual transmissions, but sedans just don't sell in the US. Camry and Carolla sales have been falling just about every year for the last decade. Ford got completely out of the car market aside from the Mustang. GM's and Stellantis has basically done the same (though there is a new Dodge Charger coming with a BEV option...but that's their only sedan). Even with electrics near the bottom of the EV price range, Hyundai sells twice as many Ionic 5 (crossover) than Ionic 6 (sedan).

 

[Randy]

tbh I think that one of the biggest issues facing mass adoption of EVs right now is the fuckin economy. your average EV costs what, $35-45k before options? most people don't have the money for that shit. in my (100% completely anecdotal) experience with replacing windshields and the like, most people are driving nissan versas, used civics, camrys, corollas, old pickup trucks, ie cars that they're buying for $7-12k. obviously there's also a very large section of people who drive pricier cars, i'm not denying that. just that the cross section of those people AND people who are interested in EVs AND can find one that meets their wants and needs.

maybe i'm completely full of shit (i am) but imo if you want to see EVs adopted on a large scale, make one that can get the average person to and from work and events daily for $15k that doesn't look like anything other than a normal ass sedan.

A big part of this is also that the used EV market has been lagging behind. Between lack of supply, prices, inability to get credits (i believe this has changed?) and obsolete older tech, the options have not been great

 

[budda]

We need to invest in public transportation and the infrastructure for that and get the fuck away from a car-based society. Til we get there, we’re just… spinning our wheels

I would love to have 1 car in my household and reliable transit.

 

[soliloquy]

We need to invest in public transportation and the infrastructure for that and get the fuck away from a car-based society. Til we get there, we’re just… spinning our wheels

I would love to have 1 car in my household and reliable transit.

I think North America needs to move away from the "American dream" of white picket fence, front and backyard, and excessive land.

Take the major cities of Europe, for example. Houses are stacked right next to one another. A multi millionaire can live right next to someone who considers themselves as "middle class". They both have a TINY front yard, with no backyard. From the outsides, we can't tell the houses apart. Difference is on the inside where the richer person has marble or what not on the inside and the other has carpet.

Point is, in my opinion, we don't need to keep doing urban sprawls. The more we sprawl, the worse our public transit will get. Because we live so far from everything, public transit has no real hope of getting better as it's not really feasible to create stops every few meters.


But whatever happened to that plan to create a bullet train connecting Windsor to Ottawa, with the promise of commuting between Ottawa and Windsor in about 1.5 hours? I'd take advantage of that if it meant I can live far away with less expenses and not sacrifice my time in commute

 

[budda]

Urban sprawl, the “manicured lawn” wreaking havoc on existing ecosystems, cars creating commutes (theres a pic im thinking of showing a bus vs cars for a group), which ties to available time, emissions/pollution and work/life balance and - if we arent fighting for a system overhaul, what are we doing? Maybe more political than this thread was meant to be but yeah.

 

[Randy]

Yes, this is more inline with the approach i had in mind.

How about incentives or even MANDATED WFH/hybrid for jobs/industries that don't require in person service?

It also boggles my mind that public transportation is accessible in cities that are easily walkable/bikeable, but rural communities where everything is so far apart, its your car or nothing?

Would be very easy to implement zero GHG rail or bus in a shorter timeline also.

 

[budda]

Randy, realty doesnt like what you’re suggesting.

 

[Randy]

Randy, realty doesnt like what you’re suggesting.

It is funny how selective the government is about which apple cart they're willing to upset.

I went scrolling the major auto manufacturer websites to see what they're promoting, and the above the fold promotions on the Dodge website are all muscle cars boasting and SRT motor capable of 800 horsepower. Does that sound like a company tuned in to selling EVS only at any point, or meeting the 40 MPG deadline that's due 2 years from now?

I said it before in here and also in the general political thread.

I'm tired of feel good policy with the mandates putting the pain and the onus on the individual rather than on these industries that have all the money and capacity to make the changes themselves.

 

[budda]

Lobbyists have successfully ruined a lot of things, methinks.

 

[soliloquy]

I'm tired of feel good policy with the mandates putting the pain and the onus on the individual rather than on these industries that have all the money and capacity to make the changes themselves.

BINGO!

make EVERY factory green; make every vehicles on the roads run on hydrogen, make every house run on solar/wind/nuclear, and that will put SOME small dent in environment.
cut down the cattle industry, or maybe even make it illegal, and only rely on more 'green' food or poultry....suddenly our environmental issues will be resolved.

why are politicians and lobbies ignoring the cattle industry?




also, going back to your previous point: some industries run on buildings being filled with people. those will be heavily impacted if governments mandate WFH. My job will sort of be impacted by that too...but if it takes me to lose my job to make the earth more livable for future generations, and animals....FUCK MY JOB! People have called me out on my stance with this (and housing crisis) as a privileged view point, yet i rather sacrifice myself and my well being if it means its a greater good to others.

 

[BlackMastodon]

tbh I think that one of the biggest issues facing mass adoption of EVs right now is the fuckin economy. your average EV costs what, $35-45k before options? most people don't have the money for that shit. in my (100% completely anecdotal) experience with replacing windshields and the like, most people are driving nissan versas, used civics, camrys, corollas, old pickup trucks, ie cars that they're buying for $7-12k. obviously there's also a very large section of people who drive pricier cars, i'm not denying that. just that the cross section of those people AND people who are interested in EVs AND can find one that meets their wants and needs.

maybe i'm completely full of shit (i am) but imo if you want to see EVs adopted on a large scale, make one that can get the average person to and from work and events daily for $15k that doesn't look like anything other than a normal ass sedan.

The price of a battery pack in the current small-sized EV's cost more than $15k, so to build a full car at that price you'd be looking at maybe 100 miles of range, which theoretically should be enough for day-to-day use, but nobody wants to compromise for that. We've moved past those being viable options about a decade ago when sales of things like the Nissan Leaf or early compliance EV's saturated. Everyone wants the convenience of what an ICE car can offer but in an EV package and low price tag. The problem is that EV's are so damn expensive and STILL not profitable, so OEM's still make all their money from gigantor trucks and SUV's (which people don't mind spending $70k+ on, but I'll just sit here and sip my tea).

 

[crushingpetal]

Tangentially related, but in what world does it make sense that Tesla reports a significant revenue drop, lays off 10% (or more) of their workers, and slashes prices, and then their stock price rises 15% because that loud guys says "oooohhhh, we're gonna do robotaxis".

Please tell me when to burn my econ textbooks. Nothing makes sense. (I guess that's a pun.)

 

[soliloquy]

Tangentially related, but in what world does it make sense that Tesla reports a significant revenue drop, lays off 10% (or more) of their workers, and slashes prices, and then their stock price rises 15% because that loud guys says "oooohhhh, we're gonna do robotaxis".

Please tell me when to burn my econ textbooks. Nothing makes sense. (I guess that's a pun.)

Was it ALMCO? or HERTZ? some car company signed a deal with Telsa where they will be renting out EVs.
hardly ANYONE wanted to rent out teslas from that company (for one reason or another). The compnay's stocks plummeted. Tesla on the other hand did really well for this deal and their stock boomed.

I also dont understand the growing distaste people have for him, yet he keeps doing 'better' financially.





long term thinking: What happens to batteries when they die? As in....do we recycle them? reuse them? or more shit to toss in landfills? Anyone know? I know electronic stores/ikea/etc have 'battery bins' where they ask you to bring your AA/AAA type batteries, and someone, somewhere deals with them as they see fit...but what about EV batteries?