Is the musical instrument bubble about to burst?

[mbardu]

So....everyone and their second cousin have been buying instrument since the start of the pandemic, right?

Custom builders have had full order books this year, techs I know have been underwater with work. Reverb prices have trended higher and higher with no end in sight for months, even on basic stuff - and yet things are still selling pretty quickly (at least until last month or so...). Speculation is rampant at TGP/Reverb. Record sales at GuitarCenter. Lots of stuff on backorder or OOS at places like Sweetwater.

It makes sense after all, everyone was looking to start or re-start a musical hobby.

What happens in 6 months when 90% of people realize that guitar is not really (or really not) for them and/or when more people are back at work? When the economic reality of the pandemic takes an even worse toll than it already has and people have to liquidate their expensive instruments?

Will there be a flood of used instruments on the market?
Will small builders struggle to make ends meet?
Put on your thinking cap and come speculate

 

[Mathemagician]

You can hope for a flood, but I think a lot of people found more free time. And a lot of jobs are never going to return to “5 days in the office a week”. I sure as fuck have no intention of doing so and my commute is 10 minutes.

That lack of commute for many people equals more time for family and hobbies.

Will be interesting how the next two or so years pan out in so many ways.

 

[Demiurge]

I'm keeping the guitars I bought. My wife wanted to learn to play and bought a guitar herself, but hasn't touched it once during lockdown. I can see it both ways.

 

[BenjaminW]

I think realistically and quite honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if there's a flood of used instruments on the market once things truly start to go back to normal. The way I see it is that there's gonna be two kinds of people: The ones who picked up an instrument and stick with it whilst things return to normal, and the ones who pick up an instrument and think that they'll stick with it, but will eventually get bogged down by work and/or school.

I personally haven't bought any guitars in the last few months, but I am curious as to whether I should keep sitting on guitars I want that are on back order or if I should do something else to cure my GAS.

 

[budda]

The real question is will they all be listed for $50 less than new, new or reasonable prices?

 

[MaxOfMetal]

You can hope for a flood, but I think a lot of people found more free time. And a lot of jobs are never going to return to “5 days in the office a week”. I sure as fuck have no intention of doing so and my commute is 10 minutes.

That lack of commute for many people equals more time for family and hobbies.

Will be interesting how the next two or so years pan out in so many ways.

This.

Most places aren't going to be moving back to regular hours any time soon if ever.

Pretty much all the speculation since the start of the pandemic has been wrong:

- Huge discounts on new gear. Never happened.
- Mass sell offs. Never happened.
- Prices on used stuff bottoming out. Never happened.

The truth of the matter is, most folks buying the kinds of guitars that hobbiests and enthusiasts tend to play (stuff in the $1k and above range) weren't as severely impacted financially by the pandemic, which fell much more sharply on service industry workers, and folks who already fell within the lower 25% of income, and those folks weren't buying tons of gear anyway.

One of the primary reasons for all the out of stocks and delays was the stoppage of the supply chain, even American and European manufacturers rely heavily on parts sourced in Asia which took shutdowns far more seriously.

There will always be edge cases, but overall I don't see a significant rise or fall in the near term. Guitars aren't a commodity.

 

[TedEH]

It hadn't occurred to me that people would be buying more instruments right now, but I guess it makes sense now that I think about it. I've definitely heard some friends say they were going to try learning an instrument again, but they already had them.

I've honestly gotten pretty comfortable with the working-from-home arrangement, so I'd find it pretty difficult to give up the extra time and flexibility of it. But yeah... maybe you're right.... maybe now is a great time to buy more guitars....

 

[budda]

On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.

Signed,

5 ngd's this year

 

[SpaceDock]

Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.

 

[budda]

Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.

Quite a lot of people.

On the flip side is people like me who worked overtime 9 out of the 10 months of 2020. Some people think thats great, others understand that real breaks are a good thing.

If I can find gear I want used at decent prices, I wont be mad.

 

[Steinmetzify]

The real question is will they all be listed for $50 less than new, new or reasonable prices?

This.

‘Barely even used, still has the plastic on the back. I paid $999, I need $985”

 

[budda]

This.

‘Barely even used, still has the plastic on the back. I paid $999, I need $985”

Been seeing that already, but no idea if its pandemic buyers or not.

 

[Hollowway]

Idk about the pandemic, but eventually the economy will stop expanding, and we’ll see more guitars on the market. We’ve been in a good economy for years. The deals over the past 8 years have gotten way more scarce. Good ones are snapped up within an hour or two on the verb.

 

[Necris]

I think Max pretty well covered it but on the topic of people looking to pick up a hobby specifically you may see an increase in Squiers and Ibanez Gios on Craigslist but there's already an ebb and flow to entry level instruments coming up for sale during the transition between summer break and the school year. If you were going to get any sort of deluge of used gear the entry level is the price range it would probably happen in. Considering the Coronavirus second wave seems to be all but assured as we head into winter and we have no idea how much of an impact that will have I'd imagine things are still too uncertain right now for a lot of people to really justify any big investments into a hobby, especially new ones.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.

Depends on the industry and job of course, but it seems a lot of general office jobs have moved remote, so the amount of work is the same, but not being tied to a commute and desk means more free time.

Haven't you seen all the Zoom memes?

Anecdotally, something like 2000 people at the company I work at are still working remotely and it's pretty much the industry standard right now.

 

[SpaceDock]

I have been working at home since March 13th but am still tied to the desk all day long, so no extra time except lack of short commute. In Teams meetings and still just working all day no different than prepandemic.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

I have been working at home since March 13th but am still tied to the desk all day long, so no extra time except lack of short commute. In Teams meetings and still just working all day no different than prepandemic.

And I've been working non-stop, literally 12/7, but that's definitely not the norm.

 

[budda]

And I've been working non-stop, literally 12/7, but that's definitely not the norm.

Take a break, you earned it.

 

[USMarine75]

On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.

Signed,

5 ngd's this year

I replied to a TGP post about listing what gear you bought since the start of the pandemic and I legit felt guilty lol.

 

[_MonSTeR_]

Rich Harris posted in Jemsite that Guitar Center has declared chapter 11 again, so they weren’t selling that many guitars

I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time. But I’m saving on petrol money (good thing with U.K. fuel prices). But I’m saving that money not spending it.

I think that the bubble will contract but not burst; those people buying Suhrs and Fender Custom Shop Guitars will continue to do so and those aspects will do well, but I predict the Schecter imports and Ibanez Premiums will be the ones to take a hit as we move forwards.

I hope I’m wrong.