Is the musical instrument bubble about to burst?

[budda]

I replied to a TGP post about listing what gear you bought since the start of the pandemic and I legit felt guilty lol.

I basically "caught up" after putting everything into a band. But there was a reason: home studio selection. I made my EP utilizing most of my purchases.

 

[Demiurge]

I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time.

Yeah, this is pretty much my situation, too. Of course what happens is that I spend my workday longingly gazing at my gear, but after logging-off I feel like I've gotta get out of that room. I frankly thought that I would be better at work/life balance in this situation, but it's still so much better than reporting to the office.

 

[soul_lip_mike]

On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.

Signed,

5 ngd's this year

hell yea man! 3 for me, 4 if you include a deposit on a “custom’ ESP USA arriving in a few months.

 

[diagrammatiks]

Idk about the pandemic, but eventually the economy will stop expanding, and we’ll see more guitars on the market. We’ve been in a good economy for years. The deals over the past 8 years have gotten way more scarce. Good ones are snapped up within an hour or two on the verb.

reverb really killed a lot of good deals man.

used to be before someone only knew like one or two forums so their stuff would only be posted on like tgp or rig-talk. and it would just sit. I used to be able to pick up Andersons for 1400-1500.

then after reverb that stuff is gone in 5 minutes.

 

[Edika]

One other thing I noticed is that the people whose jobs were not in danger, by working from home and not socializing they actually were spending less. So more disposable income for guitars .

There was a similar projection about the housing market in the UK, that it would slow down and house prices would drop, but instead it is booming at the moment.

 

[TedEH]

Now that I think about it - for every people I know of with extra free time and spending money because of working from home, there's an equivalent person who was instead out of a job or forced to adapt in a way that had the opposite effect. I've got all the time in the world to play more guitar now, and have enjoyed having guitars on me pretty much as I work (type a bit, noodle some riffs, type some more, noodle some more) - but retail and service jobs are still taking a hit. Lots of businesses didn't survive through the lockdown, and the places that are still open are not seeing the kinds of traffic they did before. Two of the places I used to frequent are closed permanently.

So I think it balances out. For some, this has been a great opportunity and a great time to invest in hobbies, but for others.... this has been, and continues to be, the worst possible time to allocate funds to recreation.

 

[budda]

hell yea man! 3 for me, 4 if you include a deposit on a “custom’ ESP USA arriving in a few months.

Already thinking about selling 1 or 2. The number is high too because i bought a cheaper acoustic, didnt bond, got a nicer one .

 

[mbardu]

Rich Harris posted in Jemsite that Guitar Center has declared chapter 11 again, so they weren’t selling that many guitars

I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time. But I’m saving on petrol money (good thing with U.K. fuel prices). But I’m saving that money not spending it.

I think that the bubble will contract but not burst; those people buying Suhrs and Fender Custom Shop Guitars will continue to do so and those aspects will do well, but I predict the Schecter imports and Ibanez Premiums will be the ones to take a hit as we move forwards.

I hope I’m wrong.

Guitarcenter management is terrible, but they have been posting record sales. By a good margin. And they're not the only ones.

https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-wes...ees-surge-instrument-sales-and-recording-tech

https://guitar.com/news/industry-news/guitar-center-hollywood-sales-increase-covid-19/

https://www.guitarplayer.com/news/fender-posts-record-breaking-sales-in-2020

 

[MaxOfMetal]

There's a difference in having a bump or dip in the market vs. something more extreme like a bubble bursting implies.

You gotta take articles like that with a grain of salt, most of these guitar companies are still privately held, so it's not like we can see anything outside of rosy reports from CEOs.

 

[diagrammatiks]

record sales also doesn't mean you can't go bankrupt.

 

[mbardu]

record sales also doesn't mean you can't go bankrupt.

For sure. Record sales doesn't mean that you can't go bankrupt. But unlike what the other poster implied, going bankrupt doesn't mean that you cannot have record sales either.

As mentioned, their management is pretty bad still, and at least from subjective experience, they're also having just as many returns as they're having sales.
Which kinda actually contributed to the "bubble" thought tbh.

 

[_MonSTeR_]

For sure. Record sales doesn't mean that you can't go bankrupt. But unlike what the other poster implied, going bankrupt doesn't mean that you cannot have record sales either.

As mentioned, their management is pretty bad still, and at least from subjective experience, they're also having just as many returns as they're having sales.
Which kinda actually contributed to the "bubble" thought tbh.

You inferred, I didn’t imply.

I meant exactly what you have posted here. Going bankrupt doesn’t mean you can’t have record sales. Just that in this case, those record sales still weren’t enough to keep them from filing for Chapter 11.

 

[mbardu]

You inferred, I didn’t imply.

I meant exactly what you have posted here. Going bankrupt doesn’t mean you can’t have record sales. Just that in this case, those record sales still weren’t enough to keep them from filing for Chapter 11.

My bad if that's not what you meant . From the tone of your message I had misunderstood your intention it seems!

 

[spudmunkey]

I wonder if it will be any different than any other hobby. Cooking, baking, woodworking, sewing, painting, knitting, etc have all seen SIP up-ticks.

 

[Celtic Frosted Flakes]

Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.

I don't spend two hours every day chatting with colleagues by the coffee machine when working at home, so I spend those hours on my hobbies instead. And I still manage to be more productive at home even though I work less hours.

 

[Tracker_Buckmann]

With CNC machining the price of instruments is coming way down. I recently bought my girlfriend a 'Firefly' semihollow guitar that's modeled off of a gipson 335- amazing guitar. I liked it so much that I'm going to buy a similar model so i can get some of that controlled feedback going on.

My main guitar right now is a schecter banchee elite, so I'm not exactly a cheapskate. The reality is, technology is making music much more accessible. I believe this is a trend that will relate to many products, and that's a good thing. It's probably the only thing that's going to save us from massive inflation.

Go price a gipson birdland or a 335 and then price a 'firefly' or a 'grote.' There will always be a market for handmade instruments, but it will be more of a novelty rather than a practicality.

Besides, I'm pretty sure a lot of companies are already doing this. So unless you're buying a $10k guitar, it was probably machined by a programmer.

 

[budda]

Inflation says prices are not coming down. Cheaper guitars are better, but prices are not coming down.

 

[mmr007]

Its the abundance of disposable income and that will change soon. I disagree (my opinion) that everyone not communting allows free time to start up a hobby like guitar and that remote work continuing as a trend will allow to keep guitar prices high. The fact is the number one thing we spend money on is eating out and drinking...habits that have been near impossible. I can buy 2 epiphones a month or a gibson every other month on what I save on not going out to dinner on weekends...bringing home dinner during the week...not going out for drinks after work...throw in that amusement parks, movie theaters, museums and just plain old vacation spots are closed or not worth going to during pandemic. There may be a permanent shift towards more remote or satellite workplaces but once people start spending again, there will be less money for guitars no matter how short your new commute is.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

With CNC machining the price of instruments is coming way down. I recently bought my girlfriend a 'Firefly' semihollow guitar that's modeled off of a gipson 335- amazing guitar. I liked it so much that I'm going to buy a similar model so i can get some of that controlled feedback going on.

My main guitar right now is a schecter banchee elite, so I'm not exactly a cheapskate. The reality is, technology is making music much more accessible. I believe this is a trend that will relate to many products, and that's a good thing. It's probably the only thing that's going to save us from massive inflation.

Go price a gipson birdland or a 335 and then price a 'firefly' or a 'grote.' There will always be a market for handmade instruments, but it will be more of a novelty rather than a practicality.

Besides, I'm pretty sure a lot of companies are already doing this. So unless you're buying a $10k guitar, it was probably machined by a programmer.

The widespread use of CNC has definitely changed the guitar manufacturing landscape, primarily in what skill sets are needed and helping to reduce time tables while also allowing for certain specs to move down market.

But, the biggest determinant of price at retail will almost always come down to three things: scale of production, labor costs, and line pricing.

As amazing as CNC mills are, they don't extrude complete instruments, they still need operators to setup, monitor, and change over, as well as the ancillary staff to prep the materials and perform maintenance.

 

[fantom]

Its the abundance of disposable income and that will change soon. I disagree (my opinion) that everyone not communting allows free time to start up a hobby like guitar and that remote work continuing as a trend will allow to keep guitar prices high. The fact is the number one thing we spend money on is eating out and drinking...habits that have been near impossible. I can buy 2 epiphones a month or a gibson every other month on what I save on not going out to dinner on weekends...bringing home dinner during the week...not going out for drinks after work...throw in that amusement parks, movie theaters, museums and just plain old vacation spots are closed or not worth going to during pandemic. There may be a permanent shift towards more remote or satellite workplaces but once people start spending again, there will be less money for guitars no matter how short your new commute is.

Don't forget about vacation. 3-4 plane tickets, a hotel room, and a rental car. That can buy a nice piece of gear.

Some people have more time, and some people have more money. Not sure if many people are in both categories.