The Moon: Power Frontier

[bostjan]

Might be an interesting topic, maybe not.

The USA went to the Moon 50 years ago. (Maybe some people here don't believe we did, but we all must agree that, at least, the narrative pushed forward is that we did.)

Events of the past couple of years have seen renewed interest in the Moon by both Xi and Trump. Now Trump is on his way out (or so we all believe), and maybe Biden will veer away, but there are indications that the USA will continue to plan to send more people to the Moon.

Why?

Well, I think that's a great topic for discussion. I believe that the Moon is the next power frontier. It's the springboard into deep space, it's positioned to keep an eye on Earth, where all intelligence of any interest is occurring, and it may contain some sort of valuable resources (maybe yet unknown). Whoever gets a foothold there first will own a position of material leverage over every other nation.

Antarctica has a treaty protecting it from government claims. It's free land that no person or government can claim ownership of, but many can claim use of. Should the Moon be covered by a similar treaty? Should Russia, China, and the USA be worried about who gets there first? Should other nations try to step in diplomatically?

What do you think?

 

[nightflameauto]

I think the Moon will likely be divided up much how the Earth is. Wherever you claim will eventually be "owned" by the state that got there first. Though I also think, given a large enough population, there will be a push to create their own national entities.

I've done a lot of study of our current trajectory when it comes to space travel. Musk's obsession with making humanity a multi-planetary species is going to make something happen in the coming decades, regardless of where the federal government lurches in it's back and forth see-saw of administrative counterbalances. He's already made it commercially viable for a private company to produce space gear for transporting humans. He's working on a ship that can transport up to 100 people in one trip, or far fewer and massive quantities of working materials or tools. It's had test flights of varying success and is probably only a few years away from being certified for human flight. When that happens we're likely to see the possibility of space travel become, if not commonplace, much more available.

I do think the moon is our first real step. Having a lunar base, and lunar satellites to set up long-range missions is going to be a huge move forward for our journey outward from Earth. Who gets there first may be important in the beginning, and I'm sure there's bound to be clashes. Though in the end, I can't see any potential permanent populations wanting to remain under Earth countries' rule. Whether that be the Moon, Mars, or any other potential non-Earth body.

 

[bostjan]

With all due respect to Mr. Musk, he also wanted to dig a tunnel under Los Angeles years ago, nuke Mars, make a million-mile electric car battery, etc. For every cool big idea he's executed, he's had a hundred enter development hell.

I'm not sure whether or not to take his Moonshot goals seriously. You'd have to build something there before you can start shipping hundreds of people to live there. Not to mention, there needs to be a reason why people would want to live there. "Just because" is probably not going to get people to give up everyone and everything they know. If the government trains some military people to be Moon guards, though, it seems more feasible to me as a reason to go.

I do think that the US and China are dead serious, though.

How it goes in the long term will depend on how things kick off in the short term. For the next ten years, I don't see any chance of anything like a permanent settlement there, but, maybe an outpost of some sort. I think that the next 5 or so years is going to be the time for the international community to talk about this if there's going to be any sort of international agreement about how to use the Moon. And, in the case that that talk never happens, I can totally see either the USA or China or both trying to impose some sort of ownership.

 

[Drew]

I'd love to see some sort of international treaty dictating who can do what on the moon (and, while we're at it, and speaking of Musk, near-Earth space, as well).

I also recognize that international cooperation is currently at it's lowest level since at least the end of the Cold War, and we have a lot to do with it.

 

[StevenC]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty

Kinda surprised you guys don't know about this.

 

[nightflameauto]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty

Kinda surprised you guys don't know about this.

Some of us are aware, but the problem with that is enforcement, as well as adherence, seems to be pretty wishy-washy at the moment.

As for Musk's failures, and there are several to choose from if we want to argue about them, we can't really say SpaceX is one of them. Does it ever reach his mostly preposterous time-tables? Nope. But does it achieve each goal he sets at some point? So far, yes. I'm aware he's a bit of a blowhard, and not everything he does is gold, but having read a long-form interview with him years ago where he detailed his plans in a sitdown with some like-minded nerds, none of it seems impossible. Some of it seems impossible today, sure. But at the time of the interview I read it seemed impossible that we'd ever see a private company shuttling astronauts to and from the ISS. I've heard a lot of folks say "he'll never" when it comes to any of his announcements, including getting approval and actually delivering a human grade launch vehicle and capsule.

I don't know if we'll see permanent settlement on the moon in the next twenty years, but we'll definitely see boots on the ground, as they say. I think, as with most things he and other "space nutters" as they are referred to in the techie world I inhabit, the idea of seeing it in five is a little far-fetched, twenty seems more achievable. And if they manage before then, hey, more power to them.

That said, I do believe we will have permanent settlements at some point in the future. That much seems inevitable unless we truly do manage to wipe ourselves out to the point of no longer being able to support space missions of any kind, let alone continued development once there. It'd be neat to see how manufacturing capabilities either on the moon or somewhere in the asteroid belt could lead to much deeper travel, but I have my doubts that will happen before I check out.

As for the political side of things, I know that people see Space Force as a bit of a joke today, but there are plans to turn them into what's essentially the coast guard for space. Rescue craft will be available for quick launch in the next decade or so, and discussions are ongoing as to whether they want those rescue craft to be based on the ground, or already up there in a permanent military satellite that's constantly manned with a small rotated crew.

China will most likely see that as a challenge to their claims to space, and will want their own. There may be other players wanting a similar force under their command.

I won't even pretend to know where this will lead, as we all know Russia will want to jump into the sandbox too.

Whether we allow Space Force to be heavily involved in the moon missions or not will probably play a role in how things will play out once humans are there again. If it's just exploration missions, there probably won't be much in the way of clashes in the early days, but if we all decide we need to have a military guard unit with each mission, hold onto your hats. It'll be a matter of how cooperative the folks holding the guns feel with their fellow military members across the surface.

Of course, all of that assumes multiple countries will reach there within a short time period. If there's a long enough gap, it just may become a territory of somebody's before anybody else can jump in the game. If that's the case, it could turn into a massive farce of international reviews down here while those up there just get on with doing what they do. I'm pretty sure somebody will think of a way to use that situation as an excuse to start killing people. That's one thing we humans are excellent at justifying to ourselves.

 

[bostjan]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty

Kinda surprised you guys don't know about this.

I was only familiar with Article IV, but Article II is pretty clear that no one can claim the Moon.

China has signed the treaty, but China is also trying to claim a lot of international waters in the Pacific, even going so far as to shoot lasers at US pilots...

 

[Seabeast2000]

Moons kind of a big deal. I wouldn't want to reduce its mass.
That's all I got.

 

[gunch]

mopping floors in an Amazon moon base while my Amazon Compliance Device shocks my neck if I look up or around

 

[MFB]

If the moon can't be claimed, then that means it's like international waters, and therefore I'm making it my life mission to now become the first space pirate

 

[bostjan]

If the moon can't be claimed, then that means it's like international waters, and therefore I'm making it my life mission to now become the first space pirate

*moon pirate

"Look out, it's the dreaded MFB, the galaxy's first moon pirate! - Watch your keisters, everybody!"
...
"Arrrh, where's the booty!"

 

[Seabeast2000]

mopping floors in an Amazon moon base while my Amazon Compliance Device shocks my neck if I look up or around

I think you just wrote the next Black Mirror.

 

[LordCashew]

*moon pirate

"Look out, it's the dreaded MFB, the galaxy's first moon pirate! - Watch your keisters, everybody!"
...
"Arrrh, where's the booty!"

Dude was just talking about a “dedicated ass trimmer” in another thread...

 

[MFB]

How dare you bring my accurately out of control ass hair into this? I'll have your head for that!

Or better yet, walk the space plank and spend yer days adrift in the vast, dark expanse of space.

 

[groverj3]

This is clearly the prequel to The Expanse.