Will the USA and China go to war?

[odibrom]

Question is, should we care?

China at least follows the common sense ideal of trying to grow fat and rich and build stuff. That makes it a hell of a lot more likeable than many other unsavory regimes.

Also, I share some sympathy for their quest to eradicate all organized religion as the cancer that it is...although I admit their methods ARE very heavy handed, dark, and distasteful.

Yes, you should. You live in a country that follows the human rights treaty, China does not.

Although I'm not religious, people have the rights to have whatever believes they want or need. There is not right to impose whatever to whomever and that's China doing all over its country.

Make no mistake, I love chinese culture, they have a lot to teach to the world, but I hate their government politics and aggressions agaisnt defenseless people like Uyghurs and Tibetans.

... and this just the cherry on the cake. They are possibly the most bully country in the world presently.

 

[mmr007]

China will go to war but it won't be with the US because on our current trajectory we will be unable to do anything to stop their aggression and expansion. They own us financially and our society is hooked like morphine addicts on their social media gimmicks, and they and Russia have helped foment the US tearing itself apart at the seams while neo nazi right wing authoritarian figures take up the reins of government here. They will achieve what they want without ever suffering a shot in anger from a 5.56mm...or 6.88 or whatever the fuck you guys were arguing the military will be using.

But by then it will be too late for Disney's investors

 

[Flappydoodle]

IMO China does not want war with us. They would pay a very heavy price as we have NATO and their best ally, Russia, is already taxed winning against a country previously thought to be very weak. While China might have a ton of people, we have far greater military power and a much better trained force. Really the USA and China are so reliant on each other for our economies that a real war would be a loser for both of us and the world. I think China starting up something with India or Taiwan is much more likely if/when we got involved it would probably look a lot like how we are helping Ukraine vs us going direct.

Yes and no. Ukraine is a very unimportant country in the grand scheme of things. They grow some grains which mostly go to the developing world, and some to Europe. But they have a GDP per capita of like $4,000 per person per year. It's a very poor country. The poorest EU member has GDP per capita 3x higher.

And while Ukraine are certainly trying to align with the west, they're still rather corrupt and their country was in a state of disarray even before this invasion. So our involvement in Ukraine basically maxes out as "sticking it to Russia" by helping Ukraine to deplete Russian resources (money, soldiers, tanks, missiles) and giving them toys to play with.

Taiwan, on the other hand, is very wealthy, very technologically advanced, and produces a staggering amount of the semiconductors which we need for a huge amount of stuff. If China took that over and had a stranglehold on modern technology, it would be utterly devastating for the United States, Europe and everybody else. It could basically change the entire world order. It would also be a watershed moment that the "age of China" has arrived and the US is officially weak.

Furthermore, Taiwan is ideologically much more aligned with the west, valuing democracy, freedom (for the most part) etc. So if you believe ideology matters in these decisions, that would favour Taiwan also.

As much as I dislike Pelosi, the news of her trip to Taiwan, followed by the threat from China (“playing with fire” comment from CCCP’s secretary) was shocking. That a major superpower threatens another superpower like the US is unacceptable. I hope the administration gives them the bird and flies Pelosi to Taiwan in defiance.

Well, they've used the phrase in the past and we have called their bluff in the past too.

I think Pelosi should go IF Taiwan actually wants her to. It's really up to them if they think the value of the trip is worth whatever consequence might result. Maybe China will fly more planes to the ADIZ, which would be a low cost. Maybe they'd do something incredibly risky and actually enter Taiwanese airspace. Taiwan would need to have plans of how to react. If they shoot it down, that's a massive escalation. If they don't, it could be perceived as a sign of weakness and China will then keep violating airspace, creating far more dangerous and uncertain scenarios in the future. IMO none of that would be worth it for a simple visit from Pelosi. Something *concrete* like signed agreements, arms deals etc is far more valuable than a symbolic visit.

What Taiwan absolutely doesn't want is to be simply used as a button which the US can push to irritate/troll China. I think that's what Trump was doing, for the most part. I doubt he had much consideration of Taiwan, but he knew he could upset China. That's a very dangerous situation.

You also have some internal stresses in China. Some want Xi out, so him "reuniting" the country would be a massive political win for him.

 

[Flappydoodle]

China will go to war but it won't be with the US because on our current trajectory we will be unable to do anything to stop their aggression and expansion. They own us financially and our society is hooked like morphine addicts on their social media gimmicks, and they and Russia have helped foment the US tearing itself apart at the seams while neo nazi right wing authoritarian figures take up the reins of government here. They will achieve what they want without ever suffering a shot in anger from a 5.56mm...or 6.88 or whatever the fuck you guys were arguing the military will be using.

But by then it will be too late for Disney's investors

Strong disagree. What you're saying is not a rare viewpoint. However, I think the West is stronger than ever in many ways.

Russia has united us like never before. Look how fast the EU, Britain and US acted over sending arms, handling refugees, creating sanctions. I don't think we've ever agreed on anything that fast before. Russia has also successfully helped expand NATO, and created a new 1,000 km long NATO border for themselves. Oops. Every single NATO country is also now pledging to spend more on defence, to buy newer gear (often after giving older stuff to Kyiv) and to train together more often.

Russia has also weakened themselves both practically (depleting their soldiers, officers, generals, missiles, tanks etc) and symbolically (40 mile traffic jams of broken down tanks). After 6 months, they've only really progressed into the East of Ukraine, and it's not even certain they can hold it.

This has also demonstrated the massive superiority of western military technology, intelligence and doctrine. China is surely noticing that too. Russia has been slow, unable to adapt, and hasn't capitalised on advanced technology. Russia has a space program, their own satellites, their own weapon technology etc - yet they just haven't been able to integrate any of it into actually making strategically meaningful strikes.

Our basic weapons are doing VERY well against Russia, also. We gave Ukraine ~8 HIMARS systems with the 57 mile range rockets and it's totally changed the game. America alone has 300 systems, and we have rockets which go 190 miles. Our basic anti-tank weapons are wrecking Russian armour. Ukraine's basic air defences and our provided MANPADS have held Russia planes back and still even shoot down a good number of missiles. (Taiwan has full Patriot batteries, for comparison.)

China talks a big game and spends lots of money, but I kinda refuse to believe their doctrine or actual operations would be better. They're still a top-heavy dictatorship, so I just don't see them empowering people in the field to make decisions. They also have basically zero practical experience, whereas the US (and NATO) have very well integrated systems to get intelligence, air power, ground troops, artillery etc all working together.

Lastly, economically I think countries have now had enough of China's bullshit, especially after Covid. The UK and many others are taking action to restrict Chinese involvement in many areas like infrastructure, power generation, communications etc. Countries are pulling back and becoming more nationalist (in a good way), producing more things are home, becoming less reliant on others. Covid was been a good example of that, when India just clicks their fingers and refuses to export basic medicines. Now there are legit efforts by western governments to become more self-sufficient.

I still don't think there will be war, but I totally disagree that the west is weaker, dumber or less united than we have been in the past. I actually think we're mostly past it now. The culture war stuff gets way too much attention and might lead you to believe people are mad all the time.

 

[mmr007]

Everything you said is so adorable.

 

[Adieu]

Yes, you should. You live in a country that follows the human rights treaty, China does not.

Although I'm not religious, people have the rights to have whatever believes they want or need. There is not right to impose whatever to whomever and that's China doing all over its country.

Make no mistake, I love chinese culture, they have a lot to teach to the world, but I hate their government politics and aggressions agaisnt defenseless people like Uyghurs and Tibetans.

... and this just the cherry on the cake. They are possibly the most bully country in the world presently.

Pretty sure it's not about Uyghurs and Tibetans per se, they're really about hardcore devout Muslims and Buddhists in general. And Christians etc. too.

And the methods really are ugly.

But... Here's the moral conundrum: I really don't want the Tibetans to win. Wacky medieval theocracies are scary.

PS the max amount of religion I'm cool with is the cultural-historical theme park approach the Japanese have. Genuine true believers in anything scare the crap out of me. Yes, Christians too.

 

[wheresthefbomb]

... you're empowering China this way... that's how they got all western world fucked up... fast and easy money for the corporations getting goods cheaper, no matter the real cost it will take in the long run... bastards.

You're not wrong, but also, all the rare earth metals to make all the little doodads in our pedal boards, modelers etc are strip mined by people whose families are being poisoned by the pollution from their jobs.

So sure, maybe we "should" care, but it's not like there's ethically-sourced palladium mined responsibly by anarcho-syndicalist dwarves living in harmony with nature on the market.

What's the difference between a country that doesn't follow the human rights treaty, and a country that "follows" it but still does business with countries that don't for that sweet, sweet strip-mined palladium? In my eyes, not a whole lot.

In summation I agree with you completely, but I also completely reject the notion that individual consumption choices drive market forces, or any external forces save social clout. It's the same as being sober, or vegan - a great personal choice (IMO) but one that does absolutely nothing to address the sociological/material conditions that give rise to its ideological necessity.

 

[Riff the Road Dog]

not wrong, but also, all the rare earth metals to make all the little doodads in our pedal boards, modelers etc are strip mined by people whose families are being poisoned by the pollution from their jobs.

So sure, maybe we "should" care, but it's not like there's ethically-sourced palladium mined responsibly by anarcho-syndicalist dwarves living in harmony with nature on the market.

What's the difference between a country that doesn't follow the human rights treaty, and a country that "follows" it but still does business with countries that don't for that sweet, sweet strip-mined palladium? In my eyes, not a whole lot.

In summation I agree with you completely, but I also completely reject the notion that individual consumption choices drive market forces, or any external forces save social clout. It's the same as being sober, or vegan - a great personal choice (IMO) but one that does absolutely nothing to address the sociological/material conditions that give rise to its ideological necessity.

This is a great post. While boycotts generally do nothing to affect the bottom line they can be effective in tarnishing the brand of an entity seen as standing in the way of progress, as we have seen quite a bit recently. Capitalism is the strongest self-affirming system the world has ever seen, however. What starts as a revolt is assimilated, reimagined, marketed and sold and ends up affirming the system it originally was intended to criticize.

Voting with my wallet feels like maybe the only puny bit of power an individual can wield even if it does have little to no effect.

 

[wheresthefbomb]

This is a great post. While boycotts generally do nothing to affect the bottom line they can be effective in tarnishing the brand of an entity seen as standing in the way of progress, as we have seen quite a bit recently. Capitalism is the strongest self-affirming system the world has ever seen, however. What starts as a revolt is assimilated, reimagined, marketed and sold and ends up affirming the system it originally was intended to criticize.

Voting with my wallet feels like maybe the only puny bit of power an individual can wield even if it does have little to no effect.

I mean yeah, I still think about what I'm buying and where it's coming from even if it matters hardly at all. It makes me feel better about my choices and that's worth something.

I often wonder, where does theft/shoplifting figure into the narrative of "voting with your dollar?" It certainly seems to some extent like refusing to pay at all and taking the product anyway is a strong vote indeed, if we are to consider transactions as "votes." It would be akin to voting more than once, to follow the admittedly imperfect metaphor.

In a certain sense, shoplifting is one of the only/most ethical choices available if the goal is "expressing an opinion via transaction," followed closely by eating/reusing trash.

Extrapolating this framework to "fair trade" products also raises interesting questions. What happens when "someone" steals a "fair trade" chocolate bar? Presumably the "fair trade" took place long before the wholesaler sold it to the distributor who sent it to GiantMegaRetailStore. If we are to take the notion of "fair trade" seriously (I don't, but just for funsies) it seems once again that the most ethically sound option is stealing candy bars: supports "fair trade," does not directly support GiantMegaRetailStore (but they get to write it off so it's basically a wash anyway)

 

[DrewH]

I know the last thread I started like this ultimately lead to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

It's clear the USA is fighting some kind of proxy war with Russia but it seems as though things are "heating" up, sorry bad nuclear war pun.

I think there are A LOT of reasons why China and the USA won't engage in a direct war but what if they did?

How fast would it go nuclear? is it all just a bunch of sabre rattling? Is Old man Joe crazy like a fox and would he do it?

Do we need a major war again to work out the economical issues in North America?

Interesting times to live in...

Zero chance.

China and the US right now are like a husband and wife that hate each other but the divorce would financially wreck both parties. That could actually be an understatement. It was easier to have a war decades ago because countries were more self sufficient and there wasn't this global economy we have now. So, just as in a bad marriage, you'll just say FU to each other on occasion and make the best of it otherwise. This is why China has not invaded Taiwan to this point and why we won't recognize Taiwan.

 

[odibrom]

Pretty sure it's not about Uyghurs and Tibetans per se, they're really about hardcore devout Muslims and Buddhists in general. And Christians etc. too.

And the methods really are ugly.

But... Here's the moral conundrum: I really don't want the Tibetans to win. Wacky medieval theocracies are scary.

PS the max amount of religion I'm cool with is the cultural-historical theme park approach the Japanese have. Genuine true believers in anything scare the crap out of me. Yes, Christians too.

Buddism is the only non-beligerant religion I know of, maybe confucionism as well. Taoism is not a religion, it's a life philosophy, there are no worships nor dieties nor gods.

I understand your scepticism but I also accept other people's believes. The Tibetan culture is super peaceful and they are not as teocentric as you are painting them to be. They do not deserve what China is doing to them, which is almost genocide and a clear cultural brain/whitewashing.

This is a great post. While boycotts generally do nothing to affect the bottom line they can be effective in tarnishing the brand of an entity seen as standing in the way of progress, as we have seen quite a bit recently. Capitalism is the strongest self-affirming system the world has ever seen, however. What starts as a revolt is assimilated, reimagined, marketed and sold and ends up affirming the system it originally was intended to criticize.

Voting with my wallet feels like maybe the only puny bit of power an individual can wield even if it does have little to no effect.

Voting with our wallet IS the way to go, as much as possible. Capitalism will chew its own bones thinking it's profitable...

 

[philkilla]

Guess we'll see what fate decides after Pelosi visits Taiwan..

 

[odibrom]

Guess we'll see what fate decides after Pelosi visits Taiwan..

... IF she in fact visits Taiwan...

 

[philkilla]

... IF she in fact visits Taiwan...

Yes indeed. Maybe it's all talk just to drum up a response, or she'll visit and China will do something stupid.

I'd be very pissed if a war broke out because she visited, but we can't bend the knee to China either.

 

[tedtan]

China is all bluster on this.

Russia may be downplaying the effects of the sanctions, but China has been watching and has seen the true impact they’ve had and they don’t want the west to enact similar sanctions against them.

 

[creepymcpeepers]

Haven’t read all this thread but was looking for something similar. After I post this im
Gonna go to the top and read but just pointing out that a military convoy is moving towards the Chinese coast close to Taiwan…. Could be a drill military’s always do drills of the most likely scenario however… I do recall a few months ago when Russia gave the green light on its invasion. I try to not speak of these topics to much in this site for fears of seeming like a fear monger and a conspiracy theorist but it’s only a matter of time before we butt heads with china. I guess we will know the moment they start putting tanks on boats but I figure they would bomb some stuff before they put the tanks in… who knows I’m not some kind of military supermind… I do know that Mexico is chinas allie and China has got its foot in South America to. It could be crazy one front fighting china in South America while Mexico invades. Russia invading alaska. And pushing on nato countries. I know that Russia hacking governemnt networks is also a bad deal…I just hope that america has some secret weapon that we have been devolping this whole time in secret. To stop there nukes and to counter… I don’t want Innocent people to die, but I hate authority so I would like to see the rulers of authoritative countries replaced…

 

[creepymcpeepers]

I know the last thread I started like this ultimately lead to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

It's clear the USA is fighting some kind of proxy war with Russia but it seems as though things are "heating" up, sorry bad nuclear war pun.

I think there are A LOT of reasons why China and the USA won't engage in a direct war but what if they did?

How fast would it go nuclear? is it all just a bunch of sabre rattling? Is Old man Joe crazy like a fox and would he do it?

Do we need a major war again to work out the economical issues in North America?

Interesting times to live in...

World War Two did pulls us out of the Great Depression. I definitely think that america needs a reason for everyone to reckonsolve there differences and a way to live in unity with one another. Maybe a big war that we truly try to stay out of but are forced to fight in to stop invasion… I will tell you right now I’m not living under china or russias rule in America! I will die.. but it seems to what I’m noticing is just a bunch of pacifist who would just rather give it away… they just want to give up… imagine though satanists and atheists and religious people and gays and straights and flat earthers pop fans n jazz lovers metal heads and abortion lovers and opposers just everything divides being set aside to open up old fashioned can of American whoop asss. As much as everyone is divided I think this could truly bring us all together… to live in peace again

 

[creepymcpeepers]

We kind of have been at war with them since the '50s in the proxy sense. The Korean War was really US vs China in the end. There was a cease fire but the war technically never ended.

Yes China funded the Vietnam and Korean War

 

[creepymcpeepers]

IMO China does not want war with us. They would pay a very heavy price as we have NATO and their best ally, Russia, is already taxed winning against a country previously thought to be very weak. While China might have a ton of people, we have far greater military power and a much better trained force. Really the USA and China are so reliant on each other for our economies that a real war would be a loser for both of us and the world. I think China starting up something with India or Taiwan is much more likely if/when we got involved it would probably look a lot like how we are helping Ukraine vs us going direct.

I agree with this as well… China has been building up its military but they haven’t fought a war in ages… on the other hand america has been fighting since it was conceived and we will fight until we are no more… unless we are completely brainwashed. I still think there will
Be the few that fight anyway… if they invade I’m fighting. I have no military training but I don’t care. I guarantee you I’m already on some Chinese kill list because of how much negativity I have express towards ping all over the internet

 

[creepymcpeepers]

China and the US are already involved in a cold war, with the stealing of IP, economic conflict, espionage activity similar to that during the Cold War with the USSR, and so forth, but I don’t think we’ll see it escalate beyond that.

Exactly a cyber war is for sure going to be a front of the next large conflict. It’s already underway