Will the USA and China go to war?

[Flappydoodle]

I'll take a pause to go get checked for Alzheimer's because I honestly don't remember typing anything that was anti-west propaganda.

Oh, here you go:

China will go to war but it won't be with the US because on our current trajectory we will be unable to do anything to stop their aggression and expansion. They own us financially and our society is hooked like morphine addicts on their social media gimmicks, and they and Russia have helped foment the US tearing itself apart at the seams while neo nazi right wing authoritarian figures take up the reins of government here. They will achieve what they want without ever suffering a shot in anger from a 5.56mm...or 6.88 or whatever the fuck you guys were arguing the military will be using.

But by then it will be too late for Disney's investors

Maybe you didn't know it, but this is a classic propaganda position that the West is falling apart, politics is broken etc. You even promote the idea of futile resistance to China's inevitable victory.

In reality, the West is becoming very united, and our methods of government and politics are flawed but extraordinarily resilient and adaptable.

It might be pretty easy to point at this little visit and LOL at China, but it's kind of a big deal. A head of state is visiting Taiwan. We used to have diplomatic relations officially with Taiwan, but, as a requisite of having diplomatic relations with mainland China, we officially stopped (although unofficially continued). When I was a kid, cheap toys all said "Made in Taiwan" on the back. Now nothing does. China doesn't recognize that Taiwan exists as a government, and they take it very personally when anyone disagrees with them. I think this visit by the US is a way to try to leverage a two-state thing, but it's not going to work, because China has made it clear that they only deal in absolutes.

But regardless of what China wants or what it thinks it needs, there's really only one rational way for this to play out and that's for China to ultimately ignore what the US is doing. I think the US government has reached the same conclusion and is just sort of forcing China to grapple with that eventuality. The two big variables in this, though, are that 1) China is not rational (I know this will start an argument, that is fine, the facts of history speak louder than posturing, IMO) and 2) the US government is dumb. I mean, I agree that what they are trying to do can work, but it could also go wrong if they boff it hard enough, and well, the US government has possibly set the record for hardest boff.


I'm not sure how many modern nukes either of them have. Maybe their entire arsenal is poorly functioning. I wouldn't be too shocked if Russia's ICBMs were held together with bondo. But, even if their stuff is old and junk, it still might work. It's likely that they don't want to launch nukes, not only due to the doomsday scenario it would inevitably lead to, but also because they are afraid that the world would get a glimpse of how shit their arsenal is compared to what they led everyone to believe. But, even if they tried to launch a dozen hypersonic nukes across the Arctic Ocean at the US and UK, and only two of them managed to hit targets, and the rest either blew up at launch or crashed down into the ocean, it'd still be the end of millions of lives, and that's not even counting the retribution that would follow. The odds that Putin tries to launch his nukes, and they all go off in random directions and blow up a bunch of unintentional targets is also a possibility that would have dire consequences anyway. Even if the nukes fail to manage a fissile chain reaction explosion, the amount of toxicity they'd release would still be absolutely horrible for the planet.

Basically, the only good outcome possible, where the nukes all fail to launch at all and Putin has an aneurism and is replaced by a reasonable leader, is one in a million.

Dealing with China, where the technology is slightly less likely to fail, and the string of replacement leaders who have the same plan is essentially endless, the possibility of such an outcome is virtually zero.

And if other countries try to pull some sort of pre-emptive attack, then it just makes China the good guys in the scenario. A great deal of the militaristic culture in places like China and North Korea is almost solely due to the fact that Japan kicked everyone's asses in WWII by attacking like crazy. Most of those countries don't really want to attack anyone else, but they sure don't want to be unprepared when they are attacked the next time.

The idea of the USA, UK, Australia, and India uniting to form some sort of super-friends alliance to take on China and Russia, is a little bit crazy. First off, India has no beef with Russia, so I don't see how they'd be anything other than neutral. Their beefs with China don't seem anywhere near enough to go to war. No, they're far more worried about Pakistan whose government openly hates the Indian government, or Bangladesh, who has close ties to Pakistan and is on the opposite side of India, or Myanmar, who is in civil war, or Sri Lanka, who are on the brink of civil war, or Afghanistan, which is not that far away and is full of the worst kind of craziness right now. Even any of the other three you mentioned have large disincentive to attack China, seeing as how China is a top trading partner for all three. If the USA attacks China, no more electronics, no more cars, no more Walmart, basically.

As much as I agree that the Chinese government is one of the most harmful things on the planet, it's also one of the strongest things, not just from sheer power, but due to the way it's woven itself into everything.

Maybe I'm naive, but I just don't see actual war happening. Neither side wants it, for all the reasons you mentioned. As long as no side makes a BLATANT catastrophic decision, I find it very difficult to see escalation to full-blown war.

For China, Taiwan is not really a prize worth losing a massive amount of GDP, people, status etc over. For the US, they do very much need semiconductors etc, and maybe there's some ideological value factored in too. But still, I don't think the US would enter WW3 to save 23 million people on an island on the other side of the world.

So IMO what happens is both sides posturing and we basically maintain the status quo. China sometimes gets mad, Taiwan doesn't get independent, USA stands by watching. Taiwan will eventually re-elect the KMT and things will improve for a period.

And gradually the West is de-linking from China in some important aspects. Maybe if we're exceptionally lucky China might still modernise over time and behave like a decent country.

 

[creepymcpeepers]

Oh, here you go:



Maybe you didn't know it, but this is a classic propaganda position that the West is falling apart, politics is broken etc. You even promote the idea of futile resistance to China's inevitable victory.

In reality, the West is becoming very united, and our methods of government and politics are flawed but extraordinarily resilient and adaptable.


Maybe I'm naive, but I just don't see actual war happening. Neither side wants it, for all the reasons you mentioned. As long as no side makes a BLATANT catastrophic decision, I find it very difficult to see escalation to full-blown war.

For China, Taiwan is not really a prize worth losing a massive amount of GDP, people, status etc over. For the US, they do very much need semiconductors etc, and maybe there's some ideological value factored in too. But still, I don't think the US would enter WW3 to save 23 million people on an island on the other side of the world.

So IMO what happens is both sides posturing and we basically maintain the status quo. China sometimes gets mad, Taiwan doesn't get independent, USA stands by watching. Taiwan will eventually re-elect the KMT and things will improve for a period.

And gradually the West is de-linking from China in some important aspects. Maybe if we're exceptionally lucky China might still modernise over time and behave like a decent country.

I don’t believe the propoganda that china is ever so powerful now either. They can upload to the internet just like me and you can of course they are gonna upload there propoganda to the internet all there chinese spys and communist supporters that live in America they got to turn their brain to moosh somehow…. Other wise there communist workers and spies would come over here and be like screw this I’m gonna be American screw you screw you xi jing ping lol…
China ain’t shit
Also there but huge population everyone is scared of there mainly old people and there mostly about to die off… this is why china changed there policy to have more kids….china and there fancy new military …. To me like the kid at Christmas tirm
That got the best gun and shot his eye out….
They don’t know what there doing
That’s why I wish every one would quit believing all this stuff on the internet about how so ever powerful they are…

 

[odibrom]

I don’t believe the propoganda that china is ever so powerful now either. They can upload to the internet just like me and you can of course they are gonna upload there propoganda to the internet all there chinese spys and communist supporters that live in America they got to turn their brain to moosh somehow…. Other wise there communist workers and spies would come over here and be like screw this I’m gonna be American screw you screw you xi jing ping lol…
China ain’t shit
Also there but huge population everyone is scared of there mainly old people and there mostly about to die off… this is why china changed there policy to have more kids….china and there fancy new military …. To me like the kid at Christmas tirm
That got the best gun and shot his eye out….
They don’t know what there doing
That’s why I wish every one would quit believing all this stuff on the internet about how so ever powerful they are…

... or we could keep doing this so they'll believe their own bluf and when the time comes they'll shoot their own feet...

 

[creepymcpeepers]

... or we could keep doing this so they'll believe their own bluf and when the time comes they'll shoot their own feet...

I like this

 

[Drew]

For China, Taiwan is not really a prize worth losing a massive amount of GDP, people, status etc over. For the US, they do very much need semiconductors etc, and maybe there's some ideological value factored in too. But still, I don't think the US would enter WW3 to save 23 million people on an island on the other side of the world.

I think the recvent semiconductor bill, to ensure a home-grown supply, points to a gradual de-linking here, and over time we maty be less inclined to go to war to protect Taiwan for purely economic reasons...

...but an economist raised an interesting point on a call I was on recently - the Chinese real estate market is a mess right now, with formerly very highly rated developers in bankruptcy, and the decision to prioritize local currency debt and default on international debt will severely complicate firms', even solvent ones, access to capital markets in the future. The Chinese financial system, in other words, is kind of strapped. They also have HUGE international emerging markets loan exposure as a consequence of their "Belt and Road Initiative." If the Fed usually hikes rates until something breaks, well, if a number of EM nations start defaulting on Chinese loans, that could very well be the Chinese financial system that cracks.

If we won the Cold War by outspending the communists to bankrupt them, it would be deeply ironic if we staved off another cold war by allowing the communists to over-leverage themselves, and then ratcheted up the cost of leverage.

 

[Riff the Road Dog]

This is how the US loses the "war" with China:

 

[narad]

This is how the US loses the "war" with China:

I mean, yesss...

The agency issued the license, and Yang launched UniEnergy Technologies. He hired engineers and researchers. But he soon ran into trouble. He said he couldn't persuade any U.S. investors to come aboard.

"I talked to almost all major investment banks; none of them (wanted to) invest in batteries," Yang said in an interview, adding that the banks wanted a return on their investments faster than the batteries would turn a profit.

 

[philkilla]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-17/chinese-military-will-send-troops-to-russia-for-joint-exercise

Oh that's cool.

I'm sure that decision wasn't influenced by a certain someone's visit to Taiwan recently.

 

[Riff the Road Dog]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...will-send-troops-to-russia-for-joint-exercise


Oh that's cool.

I'm sure that decision wasn't influenced by a certain someone's visit to Taiwan recently.

It didn't. The joint military exercises and cooperation between Russia and China are not the first and have been planned in advance of any such recent event. The article covers it pretty clearly.

 

[philkilla]

It didn't. The joint military exercises and cooperation between Russia and China are not the first and have been planned in advance of any such recent event. The article covers it pretty clearly.

Lol this?

"China's participation in the joint exercises was "unrelated to the current international and regional situation", the ministry said in a statement."

 

[Riff the Road Dog]

Lol this?

"China's participation in the joint exercises was "unrelated to the current international and regional situation", the ministry said in a statement."

No, history. No LOL. C'mon, man. You really must think Pelosi is powerful.

Assessing Chinese-Russian Military Exercises: Past Progress and Future Trends

This paper reviews the evolving Chinese-Russian military exercises, assesses their purposes and results, forecasts their future evolution, and evaluates the policy implications for U.S. military planners.

www.csis.org

 

[philkilla]

No, history. No LOL. C'mon, man. You really must think Pelosi is powerful.

Assessing Chinese-Russian Military Exercises: Past Progress and Future Trends

This paper reviews the evolving Chinese-Russian military exercises, assesses their purposes and results, forecasts their future evolution, and evaluates the policy implications for U.S. military planners.

www.csis.org

3rd most powerful person in gov officially, but nah, I think China is more unpredictable than she is powerful if it's apples to oranges.

 

[creepymcpeepers]

With the china discussion here this is to all the pacifist…. They are preparing for war… we can keep being pacifist or we can deal a swift kick to the ass there sending troops to Russia now..world war two everyone started making bombs and most people got drafted. I wouldn’t mind going to work at a bomb factory or getting drafted. Let’s go kick some ass. Every one set your differences aside… let’s whoop some ass. I know it won’t happen though…. Looks like I will
Be a army of one when are country is invaded and be shot like a dog in the streets.

 

[philkilla]

Meanwhile the US Army is busy implementing...."various progressive policies"

 

[creepymcpeepers]

Meanwhile the US Army is busy implementing...."various progressive policies"

Yup