US Political Discussion: Biden/Harris Edition (Rules in OP)

[Drew]

Did both get flipped, or just the one?

Yeah, so that IS how sophisticated your argument is?

No, this is cool, though. If the GOP continues to misread the political environment this badly and thinks picking up to seats in the Senate given the most advantageous electoral map in like 30 years is some sort of a "win," then they're going to be in for a RUDE awakening in 2020. You can try to be entitled to your own facts all you want, but eventually the real world always intervenes.

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

Yeah, so that IS how sophisticated your argument is?

No, this is cool, though. If the GOP continues to misread the political environment this badly and thinks picking up to seats in the Senate given the most advantageous electoral map in like 30 years is some sort of a "win," then they're going to be in for a RUDE awakening in 2020. You can try to be entitled to your own facts all you want, but eventually the real world always intervenes.

>Expected flipping both the house and senate
>Only gets one
>Still a "blue wave"

Sure thing, Drew.

 

[jaxadam]

>Expected Clinton to win by a landslide
>Lost pathetically and wasn’t even humble enough to give concession speech
>Blame Pootin

Sure thing, Dems.

FTFY

 

[Drew]

>Expected flipping both the house and senate
>Only gets one
>Still a "blue wave"

Sure thing, Drew.

The bolded part - that's where you're wrong. The House was highly likely to flip, 538 estimated a 7-in-8 probability, median pickup of 39 seats for the Democrats. The Senate was a total longshot, though, 538 had it as a 1-in-5 probability the Dems flipped it, with the median outcome the GOP picking up another seat. The expectation coming into the election was a split chamber, the Dems taking the House comfortably but very unlikely to win the two seats they would need to take the Senate. This proved to be about right - the GOP managed to pick up two in the Senate, one more than forecast, but the Democrats ended up outperforming in the house, at current count at 40 seats, with a possibility of 41 as a Republican who won in NC has not yet been seated, as credible allegations of absentee ballot voter fraud (coupled with the state dissolving the electoral commission) have made things pretty messy.

I think part of this "it wasn't a blue wave" argument is from the simplistic "the Dems didn't win the Senate" argument you're making, but part of it too is as of the morning after the election, it looked like the Democrats had underperformed in the house, too - that morning, they had been declared winners in something like 30 races, well under projections and barely more than the 23 they needed to flip the house. Over the next week, the long list of "too close to call" races kept breaking in favor of the Democrats. I was a little dissapointed the morning of the 7th, too, but when the dust settled the Dems had actually done modestly better than projected in the House.

And, keep in mind, the projections above assumed a partisan environment about 8 percentage points more favorable than average to the Democrats, based on generic polling. That's pretty blue.

 

[Ordacleaphobia]

I seriously feel bad for the the employees affected by it who are living paycheck-to-paycheck.

I think that I highly doubt any employees of the federal government at the level where they're affected by the shutdown are living paycheck-to-paycheck.
HIGHLY doubt.

Shut the whole thing down, try for an extra month this time. Please.

Wasn't Trump supposed to lock her up?

He was supposed to. Kinda upset he that didn't. But you guys all know that already

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

FTFY

Now you're just trying to ruffle Drew's feathers.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

I think that I highly doubt any employees of the federal government at the level where they're affected by the shutdown are living paycheck-to-paycheck.
HIGHLY doubt.

Really?

Even TSA agents, Coast Guardsman and Park Rangers?

The TSA only make $25k to $44k.

Also many members of the USCG are stationed in expensive cities and depend on payments that offset that on top of thier salaries.

As for Rangers, most start at $15/hr, especially if they're not at the busier parks.

Not to mention contractors who mostly won't be getting back pay.

It's one thing to argue if the shutdown was worth it, another to deny that it caused undo harm to thousands of civil servants.

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

The bolded part - that's where you're wrong. The House was highly likely to flip, 538 estimated a 7-in-8 probability, median pickup of 39 seats for the Democrats. The Senate was a total longshot, though, 538 had it as a 1-in-5 probability the Dems flipped it, with the median outcome the GOP picking up another seat. The expectation coming into the election was a split chamber, the Dems ta... (shortened for ease of replying)

Only a Dem could spin a purple outcome as a victory and delivering on their promise of a blue wave.

In other news, how about that blackface/KKK senator's year book photo?

 

[spudmunkey]

I think that I highly doubt any employees of the federal government at the level where they're affected by the shutdown are living paycheck-to-paycheck.
HIGHLY doubt.

I mean...I'm not sure what you mean.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...9f77a3bcb6c_story.html?utm_term=.30b6c0fd05dc

 

[MaxOfMetal]

In other news, how about that blackface/KKK senator's year book photo?

You mean the guy who voted for Bush2 Electric Boogaloo twice and was involved in a scandle where he was going to switch to Republican mid-term, but only backed out when word got out early?

Yeah, he's an asshole.

Y'all acting like he's Bernie Sanders, the dude was a DINO/centrist politician from Virginia. I'm not all too surprised at any of this really.

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

You mean the guy who voted for Bush2 Electric Boogaloo twice and was involved in a scandle where he was going to switch to Republican mid-term, but only backed out when word got out early?

Yeah, he's an asshole.

Y'all acting like he's Bernie Sanders, the dude was a DINO/centrist politician from Virginia. I'm not all too surprised at any of this really.

Senator, Maximillion. I made no reference to his political leanings. He needs kicked to the curb with Al Franken either way. I'm not acting like he's Bernie Sanders.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

Senator, Maximillion. I made no reference to his political leanings. He needs kicked to the curb with Al Franken either way. I'm not acting like he's Bernie Sanders.

You mean State Senator?

It's hard to keep track of all the scandals. It's almost like all old, rich politicians are racist.

 

[thraxil]

He needs kicked to the curb with Al Franken either way.

Yes, he does.

Would you agree that any other politician, regardless of party, with any kind of racism or sexual assault in their history also should be kicked to the curb?

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

Yes, he does.

Would you agree that any other politician, regardless of party, with any kind of racism or sexual assault in their history also should be kicked to the curb?

You can just say Trump if that's your angle, since it sure seems to be.

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

You mean State Senator?

It's hard to keep track of all the scandals. It's almost like all old, rich politicians are racist.

Like Byrd, for instance.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

You can just say Trump if that's your angle, since it sure seems to be.

That doesn't answer the question.

 

[thraxil]

You can just say Trump if that's your angle, since it sure seems to be.

I thought it was a pretty straightforward question.

FWIW, here is my post from 2017 when the Al Franken thing came up: Al Franken

I stand by that one and I feel the same about Northam.

 

[Ordacleaphobia]

Really?

Really. Comin' at you with that spicy anecdotal evidence: I was able to budget out 3 months of living expenses when I was making $11/hr.
I feel like a dick for being cold about it because for those people that are negatively impacted [which I never denied, all I said was that I'm skeptical they were in a paycheck to paycheck situation], I do feel bad, but you took a job where this was a predictable event and if you have poor financial planning skills on top of that, that's no one's fault but your own.

I'm not going to pretend I know anything about the coast guard, but if they function anywhere near how every other per-diem provider does, that per-diem is WELL above the true cost of that location.
Park rangers start at $15? When my brother interviewed they were talking about $23 and that's just the number they gave him.
And if these $15/hr federal jobs are so rough, why not work somewhere else? The job market is incredible right now. If it's a bad job you shouldn't have an issue finding an equally bad or better job somewhere else where a complete and total shutdown is not a possibility.

And hey, maybe I'm out of touch, and maybe I'm flat out wrong about this and it's financially easier to live in California (??). I acknowledge this post is backed with
anecdotal evidence and I know that some people in some areas don't get to be choosy about where they work (although, I would assume these people likely wouldn't be working for the government, but I digress...), but I would aggressively challenge the notion that our government, the one that's notorious for overcompensating itself, has employees that are literally living paycheck to paycheck.

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

I thought it was a pretty straightforward question.

FWIW, here is my post from 2017 when the Al Franken thing came up: Al Franken

I stand by that one and I feel the same about Northam.

If it was straightforward you would've just named who you were referring to.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

Really. Comin' at you with that spicy anecdotal evidence: I was able to budget out 3 months of living expenses when I was making $11/hr.
I feel like a dick for being cold about it because for those people that are negatively impacted [which I never denied, all I said was that I'm skeptical they were in a paycheck to paycheck situation], I do feel bad, but you took a job where this was a predictable event and if you have poor financial planning skills on top of that, that's no one's fault but your own.

I'm not going to pretend I know anything about the coast guard, but if they function anywhere near how every other per-diem provider does, that per-diem is WELL above the true cost of that location.
Park rangers start at $15? When my brother interviewed they were talking about $23 and that's just the number they gave him.
And if these $15/hr federal jobs are so rough, why not work somewhere else? The job market is incredible right now. If it's a bad job you shouldn't have an issue finding an equally bad or better job somewhere else where a complete and total shutdown is not a possibility.

And hey, maybe I'm out of touch, and maybe I'm flat out wrong about this and it's financially easier to live in California (??). I acknowledge this post is backed with
anecdotal evidence and I know that some people in some areas don't get to be choosy about where they work (although, I would assume these people likely wouldn't be working for the government, but I digress...), but I would aggressively challenge the notion that our government, the one that's notorious for overcompensating itself, has employees that are literally living paycheck to paycheck.

Over 550k government employees make under $24k a year. Is it so impossible to believe that due to life circumstances that anyone might be in a paycheck to paycheck situation?

I'm sure basic living expenses can be budgeted for, but if you have a major financial blow (car shits the bed, you break a leg, etc.) there's very, very little wiggle room to recover.

This is a decent summary, but I recommend reading the sources: https://work.chron.com/average-salary-government-employees-7863.html