Assassination attempt on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe

[narad]

I didn't latch onto the Russia theory but I don't think it's defying Occam's Razor to think a guy assassinating a PM at a campaign stop is politically motivated.

Well not politically motivated but specifically politically motivated by Russia. That's the conjecture that I think is laughable, based almost solely on the fact that Russia likes it when bad stuff happens in democracies.

Yet within Japan there's very little reason to assassinate Abe for politically means since (while still active) he's distancing himself more and more from the party. He's not a PM, he's an ex-PM. He's not at -his- campaign stop. And the party associates who currently hold power are not at odds with his policies, so it's not like this assassination creates a political opening.

As a sort of statement about Abe's policies historically, I guess it serves some point. But it's difficult to view it as political in the sense of shaping current and future politics (unless this guy is playing some 3D chess game of knowing the types of policies Japan is likely to enact because of this, which I guess is up in the air, but will certainly warrant some sort of response). So some sort of referendum on his old policies and the sort of pro-militarization that Abe stood for would be my personal guess on motivation.

 

[Adieu]

Anti-militarization types aren't typically former Navy washouts with homemade shotguns carrying out the nation's biggest political assassination of the century

Actually, they usually don't do shotgun killings or military service at all

 

[Glades]

Very smokey after the discharge. Looked like a black powder cloud. Home made for sure.

 

[narad]

Actually the motive is seemingly like some grudge against a religious organization that Abe was rumored to be a part of. It is kind of like a pizzagate type of occurrence.

 

[Adieu]

But I really don't think just a better understanding of the culture is required here. In no way is the occam's razor for such an attack some russian backed assassination attempt. I guess the russians probably did the philadelphia and chicago shootings too.

Philadelphia and Chicago? Of course NOT, at least not at all directly (batshit conspiracy theory propaganda out of Russia may have played a small part in the radicalization of American wingnuts, but it's certainly not a play to get specific people to shoot other specific people)

But most importantly because Putinists think first and foremost in terms of rank and CASTE. Dead randos in their country don't even tickle them and they can't bring themselves to believe that anybody else would care either.

Abe though? Quite possible. Good ol' "Kill the chicken to scare the monkey". These guys are all about ancient oriental schemes.

 

[mmr007]

I don’t see a Russia connection or motive …..yet but with just about every other goddamn thing going on in the world I can draw straight line to Putin if you want me to

 

[Adieu]

I don’t see a Russia connection or motive …..yet but with just about every other goddamn thing going on in the world I can draw straight line to Putin if you want me to

One hostile world leader falls, another immediately dies, and nobody else benefits

 

[Randy]

One hostile world leader falls, another immediately dies, and nobody else benefits

Again, I'm not hopping on the "Russia did it" thing but even in the Boris Johnson case, people discounting the role/motivation/means of Russia in that case forget Russia > Guccifer > Assange using targeted leaks against political figures to push them out of favor. Those guys are hiding under every rock.

 

[wankerness]

How does Johnson get pressed to resign (over some kiddie nonsense no less) and on the same day Abe gets killed?

Does not feel like a coincidence.

My money is on this being a Russian-sponsored effort to terrify democratic leaders.

Russian conspiracy theorist types all had been saying Boris Johnson was, like Donald Trump, a russian plant since he was a far right buffoon, so him resigning would be counter to what they'd said those sinister russians were up to in the past. I mean, at this point the fringes of those types are starting to sound almost as deluded as QAnon-ers so I'm sure they can twist this to fit into their conspiracy.

I don't know much about Abe other than he was pretty far right by a lot of country's standards, too (ex lots of idiotic national grandstanding like refusing to acknowledge past crimes like Koreans kidnapped to be "comfort women," being a vocal proponent of Nippon Kaigi, refusing to take refugees, etc). I very much doubt that Russia had anything to do with it regardless. If you buy into that "russia is all-powerful and influencing everyone" theory you probably also believe that they're trying to avoid anything that would remove divisive, right-wing populist types from government cause that's historically who causes the most de-stabilization of countries and also is most likely to get along with Putin.

If you want a tastier and more believable conspiracy theory, look into his yakuza ties. And Mike Huckabee!!!

 

[Adieu]

Seems to me that killing the ex-PM of a key second-tier ally of the west just feels like a PERFECT WARNING SHOT: even if they were 99.9% sure Putin did it, they still wouldn't go to war over it and would hush it up... but all the NECESSARY people would make all the "right" conclusions and be intimidated accordingly.

Chase one out, kill the predecessor of another one...

And there is plenty of evidence that internet influencers worked suspiciously hard to oust Johnson.

I watched the (rather unpopular) twitter account of a VERY reputable publication do two days of literally 20 posts per day about "omg Johnson is just the worst" a month apart... making it look like that's all the publication was writing about... except the actual paper had a couple paragraphs per issue. Not 20 articles.

And there's a bunch of other clues to hit pieces. Like search what Johnson "did" and you'll get articles full of clickable links like "plagued by scandal", "Partygate", "ethics violations". And then you click on those expecting dirt....and instead you get MORE clickable links like "plagued by scandal", "Partygate", "ethics violations". Which circlejerk you around between several articles saying a whole lot of nothing.

Tastes like Putler. (Or Trump saying "Hunter's laptop" or "Hillary's server", which is pretty much the same thing)

 

[Carrion Rocket]

Also the weapon. Pretty much a homemade or well-disguised sawn-off shotgun.

View attachment 110228

Pipegun.

 

[bostjan]

Seems to me that killing the ex-PM of a key second-tier ally of the west just feels like a PERFECT WARNING SHOT: even if they were 99.9% sure Putin did it, they still wouldn't go to war over it and would hush it up... but all the NECESSARY people would make all the "right" conclusions and be intimidated accordingly.

Chase one out, kill the predecessor of another one...

And there is plenty of evidence that internet influencers worked suspiciously hard to oust Johnson.

I watched the (rather unpopular) twitter account of a VERY reputable publication do two days of literally 20 posts per day about "omg Johnson is just the worst" a month apart... making it look like that's all the publication was writing about... except the actual paper had a couple paragraphs per issue. Not 20 articles.

And there's a bunch of other clues to hit pieces. Like search what Johnson "did" and you'll get articles full of clickable links like "plagued by scandal", "Partygate", "ethics violations". And then you click on those expecting dirt....and instead you get MORE clickable links like "plagued by scandal", "Partygate", "ethics violations". Which circlejerk you around between several articles saying a whole lot of nothing.

Tastes like Putler. (Or Trump saying "Hunter's laptop" or "Hillary's server", which is pretty much the same thing)

I have no idea if you are correct, but the timing between Johnson, Abe, and Putin's press conference last night where he said the west wants a proxy war, so come at me bro, and then smirked into the news camera, does seem very odd. Like, even if he didn't have anything to do with Abe, he's definitely feeling a little more on a roll than usual because of Johnson, and, at least to me, it doesn't seem like a huge stretch of the imagination to at least think the thought that maybe he had something to do with Abe, however indirect.

As for Johnson's stepping down, even if Putin didn't have any effect on that, he at least wants to think he did, no doubt.

 

[dr_game0ver]

I don't know if you are aware of it or not, but there is this thing online that started as a troll and retweeted by some politician as news that Hideo Kojima dit it. I am not even kidding...


Edit: https://www.pcgamer.com/news-outlet...o-shinzo-abe-assassination-after-racist-joke/

 

[Spaced Out Ace]

I don't know if you are aware of it or not, but there is this thing online that started as a troll and retweeted by some politician as news that Hideo Kojima dit it. I am not even kidding...


Edit: https://www.pcgamer.com/news-outlet...o-shinzo-abe-assassination-after-racist-joke/

Isn't that basically the Japanese version of having dude from MDE behind every US shooting?

 

[StevenC]

I don't know if you are aware of it or not, but there is this thing online that started as a troll and retweeted by some politician as news that Hideo Kojima dit it. I am not even kidding...


Edit: https://www.pcgamer.com/news-outlet...o-shinzo-abe-assassination-after-racist-joke/

This is easy to debunk because he posted some random new 4k Bluray of an obscure movie from the 50s on Instagram at the time of the incident.

 

[wheresthefbomb]

I didn't latch onto the Russia theory but I don't think it's defying Occam's Razor to think a guy assassinating a PM at a campaign stop is politically motivated.

Also, I don't think shootings in the US were carried out by Russian sleeper cells, but it's a known thing that Russia was deliberately feeding discourse in this country to destabilize things (remember the confirmed Russian troll farm?). Again, I said it's too fine a point for me but I don't think it's totally off base to say Russia has a reason to destabilize Western democracies and their allies from the ground level, up.

That's doesn't necessarily have to be connected to this event though, no.

Operation Mindfuck: Psyop 101
I'm not saying it's that.... but I'm also definitely not saying it's not.

"To this day, neither Ho Chi Zen himself nor any other Discordian apostle knows for sure who is or is not involved in any phase of Operation Mindfuck or what activities they are or are not involved in as part of that project. Thus, the outsider is immediately trapped in a double-bind: the only safe assumption is that anything a Discordian does is somehow related to OM, but, since this leads directly to paranoia, this is not a "safe" assumption after all, and the "risky" hypothesis that whatever the Discordians are doing is harmless may be "safer" in the long run, perhaps. Every aspect of OM follows, or accentuates, this double-bind."

 

[Randy]

Double Blind Mindfuck

 

[MaxOfMetal]

No one:...

Absolutely no one:...

Literally not a single person:...

Adieu:

How does Johnson get pressed to resign (over some kiddie nonsense no less) and on the same day Abe gets killed?

Does not feel like a coincidence.

My money is on this being a Russian-sponsored effort to terrify democratic leaders.

Shine on, you crazy diamond.

 

[narad]

Small update from the domestic outlets: the Nara stop was announced just the night before or so, so it's weird to imagine a guy from Nara could be co-opted by Russians in that period of time. Also, the self defense force guys learn to make weapons as part of their training apparently. And the guy's family was basically wrapped up in some religious group/financial scam, that caused the collapse of his family, and blamed Abe for it. So they're basically trying to trace this supposed history of the mom and the religious group now to see if it makes sense / understand the full context.

 

[Drew]

I didn't latch onto the Russia theory but I don't think it's defying Occam's Razor to think a guy assassinating a PM at a campaign stop is politically motivated.

Also, I don't think shootings in the US were carried out by Russian sleeper cells, but it's a known thing that Russia was deliberately feeding discourse in this country to destabilize things (remember the confirmed Russian troll farm?). Again, I said it's too fine a point for me but I don't think it's totally off base to say Russia has a reason to destabilize Western democracies and their allies from the ground level, up.

That's doesn't necessarily have to be connected to this event though, no.

As a sort of statement about Abe's policies historically, I guess it serves some point. But it's difficult to view it as political in the sense of shaping current and future politics (unless this guy is playing some 3D chess game of knowing the types of policies Japan is likely to enact because of this, which I guess is up in the air, but will certainly warrant some sort of response). So some sort of referendum on his old policies and the sort of pro-militarization that Abe stood for would be my personal guess on motivation.

Grabbing these two as two of the more thoughtful posts on the subject.

I think it's not a stretch at all to say Putin wasn't upset to hear Abe got assassinated, for exactly the reasons Randy highlighted - anything that destabilizes a western power makes Russia stronger on a relative basis.

As far as Putin somehow being involved... It's a stretch, and the fact this was a last-minute campaign stop makes it even harder to believe.

But, I can definitely get myself into a headspace where Putin might WANT to see Abe get assassinated. Abe almost singlehandedly can take credit for, for lack of a better word, the re-militarization of Japan, and the end of their post-WWII policy of maintaining an army for defense only. Japan historically has been the dominant political and economic force on that side of the Pacific, with a resurgent China being their biggest competition and the force most likely to tip the apple cart of, well, what almost was the Trans-Pacific Partnership. With China and Russia issuing a statement of mutual support sying they supported each other's efforts to carve out spheres of influence in their own backyards, and with Russia having a relatively small (population-weighted) presence on the Pacific Ocean, I'd go Xi and China before I would Russia, but Putin, in an act of support for China, trying to destabilize Japan for China's benefit at least makes a certain sense, and would remove the most vocal proponent of Japan reengaging with the world militarily from Japan's politics.

Do I think it's likely? Not at all. But knowing nothing else about the killer's motivations, someone wanting Japan to be less of a military force in the Asia-Pacific would be a pretty obvious jumping out point.