Israel-Palestine escalation live: Gaza under bombardment after Hamas attack

[StevenC]

Really weird for an MP, in the ruling party and former government minister no less, to explicitly endorse genocide and ethnic cleansing if that's not what Israel are doing.

Likud MP calls for Gaza to be 'erased from the face of the earth'

Galit Distel Atbaryan, who was recently public diplomacy minister, says on Facebook a 'vengeful and vicious' Israeli army is needed to wipe out the Palestinian enclave

www.middleeasteye.net

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Also

Can we please stop this "70 years is a long time" nonsense? There are currently living first generation colonisers from 70 years ago, and there are first generation colonisers moving to Palestine every day. It's fucking 2023 and we're just OK with colonialism happening as long as it's to Arabs?

 

[Drew]

Really weird for an MP, in the ruling party and former government minister no less, to explicitly endorse genocide and ethnic cleansing if that's not what Israel are doing.

Likud MP calls for Gaza to be 'erased from the face of the earth'

Galit Distel Atbaryan, who was recently public diplomacy minister, says on Facebook a 'vengeful and vicious' Israeli army is needed to wipe out the Palestinian enclave

www.middleeasteye.net

--

Also

Can we please stop this "70 years is a long time" nonsense? There are currently living first generation colonisers from 70 years ago, and there are first generation colonisers moving to Palestine every day. It's fucking 2023 and we're just OK with colonialism happening as long as it's to Arabs?

Not sure if this helps or hurts, but in 2023, rock and roll is arguably only slightly less than 70 years old. It's not THAT long ago.

I honestly think Likud losing their grip on power would be one of the best things that could happen for lasting peace in and around Israel, and reportedly Netanyahu's grip is failing:

Netanyahu’s political future looks shakier in midst of Israel-Hamas war

Already declining support for prime minister falls further as calls grow for his resignation and public anger rises

www.theguardian.com

 

[Xaios]

Not sure if this helps or hurts, but in 2023, rock and roll is arguably only slightly less than 70 years old. It's not THAT long ago.

I honestly think Likud losing their grip on power would be one of the best things that could happen for lasting peace in and around Israel, and reportedly Netanyahu's grip is failing:

Netanyahu’s political future looks shakier in midst of Israel-Hamas war

Already declining support for prime minister falls further as calls grow for his resignation and public anger rises

www.theguardian.com

Just like Trump going to jail, I'll believe it when I see it. People have been saying that Netanyahu was done for the past decade, and yet he's still there.

 

[Drew]

Just like Trump going to jail, I'll believe it when I see it. People have been saying that Netanyahu was done for the past decade, and yet he's still there.

I won't pretend to be an expert on Israeli politics, and he's a longtime survivor. I'd bet against Trump before Netanyahu, for sure.

But, this is - I would say - the biggest fuckup of his recent career, at a minimum. And his pointed refusal to take any responsibility at all for the attack, and kick responsibility to the military, is not doing him any political favors, and his margin at home was pretty damned narrow before this attack - this is what his third or fourth coalition in the last two years?

 

[narad]

Can we please stop this "70 years is a long time" nonsense? There are currently living first generation colonisers from 70 years ago, and there are first generation colonisers moving to Palestine every day. It's fucking 2023 and we're just OK with colonialism happening as long as it's to Arabs?

70 years is a long time to lose a war.

 

[Randy]

70 years is a long time to lose a war.

I mean, not for nothing but it's Israel in the middle of a sea of countries that have no use for them, who are bolstered by super powers (Russia, China, Iran) that have no use for the West (US, EU, NATO, etc).

It's a "war" that's allowed to go on because it's allowed to be treated as a localized dispute with a minority that gets outsized support from countries tens of thousands of miles away. If it was ACTUALLY war, like WWIII (which some people thing is where this is going) Israel would be wiped from the face the earth in days. Maybe hours or minutes.

So some part of my trepidation about how far Israel treads into Palestine and how its perceived is like... what does this trigger regionally and how much "restraint" do their neighbors ultimately decide to show?

 

[nickgray]

I mean, not for nothing but it's Israel in the middle of a sea of countries that have no use for them, who are bolstered by super powers (Russia, China, Iran) that have no use for the West (US, EU, NATO, etc).

You don't understand Middle East at all. First of all, Iran is not a superpower, it's a failing country whose GDP is lower than that of Israel. Their airforce is from the 70s. Their only capability of force projection are missiles and terror groups. Russia is not a superpower either, it's a shitty backwater, they can't even take on Ukraine. China doesn't play a significant role in the Middle East, and they too are not a superpower. The US is the only superpower with a fuckton of military bases around the world and multiple deployed aircraft carriers.

It's a "war" that's allowed to go on because it's allowed to be treated as a localized dispute with a minority that gets outsized support from countries tens of thousands of miles away

What? This is so wrong I don't even know where to begin. Arab countries declared war on Israel multiple times. Israel fought and won. What eventually followed are peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan backed by the US. Israel recently normalized ties with UAE and Bahrain, with Saudi Arabia in the talks.

Israel would be wiped from the face the earth in days

Oh dear god... By who? Iran? Syria? Hezbollah? Houthis?

I'm sorry, but seeing comments like this is is just so incredibly frustrating I don't know what to say. Your take on the Middle East is seriously wrong and misguided, it's not even remotely connected to reality.

There are two major spheres of influence in the Middle East currently - pro-US and pro-Iran. Most are pro-US. US has military bases in a lot in them, it provides military aid to some, and it sells them all kinds of military equipment. Despite their public being anti-Israel, their governments are anything but. Pro-Iran are failed states like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon (or Hezbollah-stan, rather), Iraq, Yemen (aka Houthistan).

 

[Randy]

You don't understand Middle East at all. First of all, Iran is not a superpower, it's a failing country whose GDP is lower than that of Israel. Their airforce is from the 70s. Their only capability of force projection are missiles and terror groups. Russia is not a superpower either, it's a shitty backwater, they can't even take on Ukraine. China doesn't play a significant role in the Middle East, and they too are not a superpower. The US is the only superpower with a fuckton of military bases around the world and multiple deployed aircraft carriers.


What? This is so wrong I don't even know where to begin. Arab countries declared war on Israel multiple times. Israel fought and won. What eventually followed are peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan backed by the US. Israel recently normalized ties with UAE and Bahrain, with Saudi Arabia in the talks.


Oh dear god... By who? Iran? Syria? Hezbollah? Houthis?

I'm sorry, but seeing comments like this is is just so incredibly frustrating I don't know what to say. Your take on the Middle East is seriously wrong and misguided, it's not even remotely connected to reality.

There are two major spheres of influence in the Middle East currently - pro-US and pro-Iran. Most are pro-US. US has military bases in a lot in them, it provides military aid to some, and it sells them all kinds of military equipment. Despite their public being anti-Israel, their governments are anything but. Pro-Iran are failed states like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon (or Hezbollah-stan, rather), Iraq, Yemen (aka Houthistan).

Look I've been going out of my way to not engage you because I get you're in the thick of it so you've gotta have this demeanor since its personal. So I'm giving you more latitude in what you say than I typically would.

That said, that's all fine for regional, ethno-territorial skirmishes that've flared up over the years but a WWIII-ish type scenario, that's all off the table. It's all about proximity and manpower.

A WWIII type scenario would be East V West with the middle east right between them.

No, Iran isn't a major super power but they come up because regionally...



...they're the biggest military in the immediate area and explicit in their hatred for Israel and their support for all countries/terroists willing to attack them. If the situation ballooned into full WWIII or Iran has their hands on a nuke, the "first shot" of WWIII would be directly at Israel. Those handfuls of American bases in Arab countries would be overrun or evacuated in hours.

Much of what you say is accurate if we're talking the current state of commerce and countries in the area wanting to do business with the US AND Russia. But if it's Arab v Jew/Christian that bubbles over into a full East v. West style war, Israel is way too far out on an island to remain intact.

You see how difficult it's been keeping Ukraine intact, and that's with the entire EU and NATO BMD just over their border.

 

[nickgray]

they're the biggest military

Iran has no air force to speak of. It also has no navy to speak of.

What's going to happen to Iran is what happened to Iraq. Except it's 2023. Here's a really really neat series on the Desert Storm:



Iran will be a major nuisance with its missiles, but it's ground troops are completely and utterly irrelevant. It's like a stack of spearmen attacking a tank in a Civilization game.

Those handfuls of American bases in Arab countries would be overrun or evacuated in hours.

Again, you just have no idea what you're saying, this is so ridiculous I don't know where to begin. Look at the map. Iran has no land border with those countries, they're separated by the Persian Gulf.

Then look up what a carrier air strike group is and how many missiles and air craft it carries. Then take a look at Qatari, UAE, and Saudi air force. Look up what those US military bases actually look like and what they carry.

You see how difficult it's been keeping Ukraine intact

It's not even remotely the same thing.

 

[Randy]

Then look up what a carrier air strike group is and how many missiles and air craft it carries. Then take a look at Qatari, UAE, and Saudi air force. Look up what those US military bases actually look like and what they carry.

Again, look at the US involvement in Ukraine.

We'll send them money and weapons but US (and EU) interests is all about keeping the missiles from falling inside their borders. They'd consider Ukraine an ally but they know a direct strike against Russia becomes open war between them and Russia, and they're walking that line.

If the war in Palestine keeps intensifying and turns into an occupation, it's not a matter of if but when Iran becomes involved. I'm sure Iraq and Syria would be totally okay with allowing a pipeline of weapons from Iran to travel through them.

The US is not going to take a direct attack on Iran, especially if Russia tells them hands off. Unless the guns turn directly on the US mainland, I don't think the US is inclined to get involved beyond the money and weapons supply.

 

[MaxOfMetal]

The US is, historically, fairly awful at this type of warfare, so I wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.

Not to mention that another forever war not in direct defense of the US mainland is going to be a tough political sell, and already is.

We sell weapons because it makes a powerful lobby a ton of money, even if they have to play a shell game of "aid" to get it back.

Boots on the ground, especially if this spirals into an entire regional and possibly global conflict is not as likely as some folks want to believe.

 

[Randy]

The US is, historically, fairly awful at this type of warfare, so I wouldn't put all your eggs in one basket.

Not to mention that another forever war not in direct defense of the US mainland is going to be a tough political sell, and already is.

We sell weapons because it makes a powerful lobby a ton of money, even if they have to play a shell game of "aid" to get it back.

Boots on the ground, especially if this spirals into an entire regional and possibly global conflict is not as likely as some folks want to believe.

Kind of what I was trying to say, more succinctly put.

Also worth noting Israel isn't a NATO allie. Considering protection of member countries under Article 5, I think who is and isn't a member gives you a fair idea of what limbs the West are willing to amputate to save the rest of the body in the scenario of a global war.

 

[Drew]

So some part of my trepidation about how far Israel treads into Palestine and how its perceived is like... what does this trigger regionally and how much "restraint" do their neighbors ultimately decide to show?

And, I know you and I have talked about this, but... look at the timing.

Israel was fast approaching diplomatic arrangements with Saudi Arabia, as part of a push under the Trump Administration to build a formal diplomatic relationship between the two nations that was not predicated on a Palestinian statehood, which would be a departure. Hamas struck when they did, and in a VERY public, egregious, and radically offensive way, in what looks a lot like an attempt to disrupt that process by causing the Israelis to escalate rather than respond proportionally, and in doing so have caused tensions between Israel and the Arab middle east to flare back up, badly jeopardizing the deal that was forming.

From here, it looks a lot like Hamas was counting on something like carpet bombing Gaza and a ground campaign in response. This knee-jerk "Israel must be allowed to defend herself" stuff is all well and good, but if that means throwing all caution to the wind, this very well may become a regional war, and I don't think Israeli oil production is anywhere near Iraqi...

This may not be a popular opinion in some quarters of this board, but if I was an Israeli, I'd be asking myself what exactly Hamas thought would happen when they overran a border checkpoint to take hostages, and attacked what was basically Burning Man. You don't really think Hamas thought they could do something so bold and merely get a sternly-worded letter in response from Netanyahu?

 

[nickgray]

what exactly Hamas thought would happen

It's actually a pretty involved question.

Every engagement vs Hamas and Islamic Jihad (do not forget Islamic Jihad) previously was a fairly limited one, sans perhaps Cast Lead (which was a long time ago). All of them, including the Second Lebanon War, ended due to international pressure on Israel. With this in mind, they know that their human shield strategy works extremely well and they though Israel would never in a million years remove the gloves, declare a state of war, and actually engage in a proper war against them.

Israel is very sensitive with regards to hostages, civilians, and its soldiers. Israel really, really does not like to see their people hurt. The Second Lebanon War was started when Hezbollah killed 3 soldiers and captured 2. Gilad Shalit, a solider who was held hostage by Hamas, was released in a really infamous now exchange for 1000+ Hamas prisoners held by Israel. In short, Hamas believed that Israel has no stomach for any kind of all out war because it's overly sensitive to casualties.

During the previous operation against Hamas in 2021, Hamas had managed to incite riots amongst the Israeli Arab public. They were limited in scope, but not limited enough, and the whole thing resonated quite badly among the public. Hamas was really, really hoping that they'd cause another round of riots, hopefully even more widespread this time. They were completely and utterly wrong, Israeli Arabs didn't bite and most, by all accounts, were appalled by the action of Hamas on 7/10.

Similarly, Hamas were hoping that both West Bank and Hezbollah would enter the conflict in a fairly significant way. Nothing came out of the West Bank, Israel had successfully contained it and arrested hundreds upon hundreds of Hamas members. Hezbollah entered the conflict in a very limited way and took some heavy damage, so far they've shown they have zero interest in expanding their operations and Nasrallah (chief evil asshole of Hezbollah) gave a first speech today since the start of the conflict and it's basically weapons-grade copium.

Israel has been in a state of political instability - 5 elections since 2019. Netanyahu, since his government always kept collapsing, kept shifting to the right, with his latest coalition (formed on Dec 29 2022) containing some downright crazy mofos. Netanyahu and his party, seeing that they can't really hold on to power, have decided to try to erode the judicial system and to shift the country more towards something along the lines of Turkey or Hungary. This prompted massive, nation-wide protests. It included a lot of military reservists who flat out said that if the reform comes to pass, they stop their duties. It went as far as very, very high ranking officers in the intelligence, military, etc., all but screaming that this will affect the security of the country. Hamas, undoubtedly, was counting on the fact that Israel was seemingly split and a conflict would only create more division. It didn't, it did completely the opposite, the country united in a very major way.

Continuing the political instability issue, the US got involved in it, of course, outright saying that Israel is an ally because it's a democractic country that shares the same values. In short, Hamas and, of course, Iran, were likely counting on the seemingly eroding US support for Israel. This also didn't work out. The US gave an unprecented support to Israel.

Israeli oil production

Um, Israel has no oil. Israel is a tech country. Not only do we have all the US major tech companies in Israel - Google, IBM, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and a fuckton more, we also have a ton of major Israeli companies. Israel is number 3 on NASDAQ afer US and China.

 

[iamaom]

Iran has no air force to speak of. It also has no navy to speak of.

I know it's a bit old, but what do you make of this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002?

 

[nickgray]

I know it's a bit old, but what do you make of this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002?

Virtually nothing? Some random exercise from 2002 is completely irrelevant to anything.

 

[USMarine75]

Saudi prince slams Hamas, Israel and the West

Prince Turki al-Faisal's comments are a rare Arab voice of criticism of Hamas's actions.

www.bbc.com

 

[USMarine75]

This is from 19 years ago but still relevant.

Egypt and the Palestinians: Friends or foes?

Even as Egypt ships aid to the beleaguered Gaza Strip, some question Cairo’s commitment to the Palestinian cause.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[soliloquy]

You know you're fucking up when holocaust survivors are begging you to cease fire, and comparing you to Nazis.

Was at a protest today, where 2 holocaust survivors, and a third is a member of a Holocaust survivor, each saying that they went through the same thing when Nazis were killing them and the world sat there denying or minimizing. When Nazis were calling them less than human. When we are seeing history repeat again. When we, as a collective said "never again" and then watch it happen all over again?

Their words, not mine, but Gaza is now the world's biggest prison and open air concentration camp being used for genocide.

Am I the only one seeing something wrong with this? Please tell me I'm not the only one....



On a side yet related note:
Palestinians don't have a passport. They don't have an airport. They can not escape even if they want to. They had an airport which was destroyed by IDF in 2001 or 2002.

 

[narad]

You know you're fucking up when holocaust survivors are begging you to cease fire, and comparing you to Nazis.

Was at a protest today, where 2 holocaust survivors, and a third is a member of a Holocaust survivor, each saying that they went through the same thing when Nazis were killing them and the world sat there denying or minimizing. When Nazis were calling them less than human. When we are seeing history repeat again. When we, as a collective said "never again" and then watch it happen all over again?

Their words, not mine, but Gaza is now the world's biggest prison and open air concentration camp being used for genocide.

Am I the only one seeing something wrong with this? Please tell me I'm not the only one....



On a side yet related note:
Palestinians don't have a passport. They don't have an airport. They can not escape even if they want to. They had an airport which was destroyed by IDF in 2001 or 2002.

Isn't a holocaust survivor just a person who gets their news and opinions the same way we all do?